Much warmer than average Tuesday; snow, wind Wednesday
Tuesday is the day to complete as many pre-Christmas errands as possible.
Mild southerly air will boost high temperatures into the 30s across northern and central Minnesota while much of the south warms into the 40s.
The Twin Cities should have a high near 42 beneath mostly cloudy skies. Parts of southwestern Minnesota will likely experience upper 40s.
Winds will be on the increase Tuesday afternoon. A wind advisory has been posted for the afternoon for much of southwestern Minnesota, where southerly gusts up to around 45 mph are likely.
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Winter storm cranking up for Wednesday
Most of our big winter storms develop around eastern Colorado and intensify as they track northeast toward Minnesota. These storms often pull in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and often can drop heavy snow.
Other, weaker winter systems are the Alberta clippers that form over (surprise) Alberta and track southeast. These fast-moving storms typically contain much less moisture and drop just a few inches of rather dry snow as they sail through our area.
The upcoming winter storm is a less-common Pacific storm that will head eastward in our direction from the Pacific Northwest. It will contain less moisture than a typical Colorado storm but will deepen considerably as it tracks toward us and will cause serious travel problems when it gets here.
A combination of freezing drizzle, light freezing rain and snow is likely to cause icy conditions in northern Minnesota Tuesday night, especially around and north of the Iron Range, so a winter weather advisory has been posted for that part of the state for overnight.
A winter storm watch has been issued for western, central and northern Minnesota for Wednesday and extended into northwestern Wisconsin by later Wednesday afternoon.
Snow will overspread Minnesota on Wednesday and end Wednesday night. Total accumulations will probably be about 2 or 3 inches around the Twin Cities area with slightly more falling to the west and north.
Amounts of around half a foot could fall on northeastern Minnesota and then northern Wisconsin. Some forecast models are beginning to show greater amounts, possibly 6 to 12 inches for northeastern Minnesota. Stay tuned for updates.
Heavy lake effect snows appear likely southeast of Lake Superior where half a foot could fall on parts of northwestern Wisconsin and close to a foot for the leading portion of Upper Michigan.
Blowing and drifting
The major disrupter from this winter storm will be the cold, blasting wind on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
A powerful, cold northwest wind will sweep across the state behind the storm’s cold front on Wednesday. Winds are likely to gust in excess of 50 mph in open areas of western Minnesota from Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Blowing and drifting will lead to near-blizzard conditions and periods of whiteouts. The Twin Cities will likely see winds gusting to 30 to 40 mph and reduced visibilities.
Northwestern Minnesota will experience very strong winds beginning early in the day. Wind speeds will increase substantially for areas farther east and south as the day progresses.
The Twin Cities area will probably see the winds increase quite a bit as the precipitation arrives late Wednesday morning or very early afternoon.
Temperatures will plunge as those northwest winds blow. The Twin Cities will likely have a high temperature around 34 Wednesday morning followed by falling temperatures into the teens during the afternoon. The falling temperatures could easily ice up many roads and streets.
Frigid Thursday
Thursday will be the coldest day so far this winter. High temperatures are forecast to reach only the single digits below zero in northern Minnesota and positive singles across the south.
The Twin Cities should have a chilly high near 7 above. Some persistent wind will push the wind chills well below zero statewide.
Quiet Christmas weather
Christmas Day weather looks to be uneventful with temperatures almost back up to normal for late December. No precipitation is expected.
Weekend travel not a problem
Weather should remain peaceful for weekend travelers around the state. Saturday is likely to be the milder day.