Falling temperatures, blowing snow and dangerous travel conditions

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Snow has moved in, and it will continue to make travel difficult in Minnesota and western Wisconsin Thursday afternoon into Friday. Because this is a two-day snow event, snow totals will pile up.

The “snow plume” of multiple National Weather Service models shows a 4 to 10 inch range of snow amounts for MSP airport by late Friday:

The thick black line shows the model average of about 6 inches, but parts of the south metro will probably see higher snow totals.

Here’s the NWS snow forecast for Minnesota:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern Thursday afternoon through Friday evening:

The metro area is in the 5 to 9 inch range, using a 10 to 1 snow-to-water ratio. The ratio may be a bit higher than that, so snow amounts could be a a bit higher.

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) model shows the snow ending a bit earlier in the metro area Friday afternoon:

HRRR model forecast snow amounts are slightly lower in the metro area, between 5 and 6 inches, with some double-digit totals in southeastern Minnesota:

Winds will be cranking up this afternoon and evening, as the low pressure system intensifies. Here are forecast peak wind gusts:

Southwestern Minnesota may see some gusts over 50 mph at times.

Blizzard warnings (shaded red) are in effect today and Friday for much of western Minnesota and far southern Minnesota:

A winter storm warning covers Scott and Dakota counties of the south metro and areas to the southeast. Winter weather advisories cover the remainder of the metro area.

Here are warning details from the NWS, along with the forecast for central and northern portions of the Twin Cities metro area:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 921 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 ...POTENT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .This is a complex system. The main impacts will be late this afternoon through Friday morning. This is when the majority of the snow will fall. This is also when areas in western and south central Minnesota will have northerly wind gusts near 50 mph. Blizzard conditions are likely from western into south central Minnesota. There is a brief period this morning when a mixture of rain and freezing rain will occur before the precipitation changes completely over to snow. A minor glaze of ice is possible on untreated pavement. A Blizzard Warning is in effect from late this afternoon through Friday afternoon for western through south central Minnesota, particularly along and west of a line from Alexandria to Litchfield to Glencoe to Le Center to Owatonna. These areas can expect snowfall ranging from 4 to 6 inches in west central Minnesota to 7 to 9 inches in southern Minnesota, along with wind gusts to between 40 and 50 mph. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect south of the Twin Cities along the Interstate 35 corridor to Faribault today through Friday afternoon. Snow amounts of 7 to 10 inches can be expected through Friday afternoon along with wind gusts of up to 30 to 35 mph. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect to the east of the Blizzard Warning and to the north of the Winter Storm Warning, essentially much of central and east central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, and continuing through western Wisconsin today through Friday afternoon. Snowfall amounts will generally range from 3 to 6 inches, although isolated locations may see receive 7 to 8 inches over a prolonged 36 hour period. Gusty winds and snow will continue through Friday, but conditions should begin to improve Friday afternoon into Friday evening. The main impacts will be to travel.

MNZ051-059>063-068-142330- /O.CON.KMPX.WW.Y.0002.210114T1800Z-210116T0000Z/ Sherburne-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver- Including the cities of Elk River, Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Chanhassen, Chaska, and Victoria 921 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central and east central Minnesota. * WHEN...From noon today to 6 PM CST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

Here are forecast details for the south metro:

Scott-Dakota-Rice-Goodhue- Including the cities of Shakopee, Hastings, Faribault, and Red Wing 921 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of east central, south central and southeast Minnesota. * WHEN...From noon today to 6 PM CST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

Here are details of the blizzard warning just to the west of the 7-county metro area:

MNZ041-048-057-058-065-066-142330- /O.CON.KMPX.BZ.W.0001.210115T0000Z-210116T0000Z/ Douglas-Pope-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Renville-McLeod- Including the cities of Alexandria, Glenwood, Willmar, Litchfield, Olivia, and Hutchinson 921 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central and west central Minnesota. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

You can hear updated weather information on the MPR 

, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News 

. Minnesota road conditions can be found 

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Ron Trenda

Author

Heavy snow and strong winds will hit most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin Thursday afternoon into Friday. We have updates on forecast snow amounts and warnings and advisories.

Winter storm update: Heavy snow and strong winds, blizzard warnings in parts of Minnesota

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