Arctic cold Sunday afternoon and night; normal temps aren't in the cards this week

You’ll need your warmest coat today and throughout the coming week.

Sunday afternoon highs will be in the single digits below zero across most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Some spots in far northern Minnesota will stay in the double-digits below zero this afternoon.

Wind chills today will be in the 40s below zero across much of the northern third of Minnesota, where a wind chill warning continues today through Monday and until noon on Tuesday:

Here are details of that wind chill warning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 326 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2021 MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022-023-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030- 054-091800- /O.CON.KFGF.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210209T1800Z/ West Polk-Norman-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall- East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk- North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Towner- Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson- Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Western Walsh- Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada, Twin Valley, Halstad, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Cando, Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas, Fort Totten, Maddock, Leeds, Minnewaukan, Devils Lake, Grafton, Park River, New Rockford, Lakota, Mcville, Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, Hatton, Portland, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin 326 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2021 ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 50 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest Minnesota and northeast and southeast North Dakota. * WHEN...Until noon CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 5 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

Most of northeastern Minnesota remains in a wind chill warning from today through noon on Tuesday, with wind chill advisories this afternoon through Tuesday in the Duluth area and into northwestern Wisconsin:

Here are details of the wind chill warnings in northeastern Minnesota:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 1104 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2021 ...PROLONGED PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS... MNZ010>012-018>021-026-080515- /O.CON.KDLH.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210209T1800Z/ Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook and Lake-North Itasca- Central St. Louis-Southern Lake-Southern Cook-South Itasca- Including the cities of International Falls, Ely, Isabella, Bigfork, Hibbing, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Grand Marais, and Grand Rapids 1104 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2021 ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 45 below zero. * WHERE...Northern Cook and Lake, South Itasca, Koochiching, Southern Cook, Southern Lake, North St. Louis, North Itasca and Central St. Louis Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Grand Portage Reservation and the Bois Forte Band, Deer Creek, Nett Lake and, Lake Vermillion areas. * WHEN...Until noon CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

A wind chill advisory continues in central and southern Minnesota plus most of western Wisconsin until noon today:

Wind chills in the -25 to -35 range are expected in the advisory area. Parts of west-central Minnesota and Fergus Falls and Brainerd will remain in a wind chill advisory until noon on Tuesday.

Flake chances?
Parts of southwestern and south-central Minnesota could see scattered light snow showers or flurries this later this afternoon and this evening.  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern this afternoon and evening:

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Temperature trends

Low temps late Sunday night/early Monday will be in the 20s below zero across much of northern Minnesota and parts of northwestern Wisconsin, with some teens below zero elsewhere:

The upper air pattern won’t change much in the next 5 days, so the arctic cold will linger through the entire week. High temps in Minnesota and western Wisconsin will be 20 to 30 degrees below normal this week.

Monday highs reach the single digits above zero in the south, but they stay below zero in northern Minnesota:

Keep in mind that our average high temp in the Twin Cities is 27 degrees this time of year.

”High” temps in the Twin Cities metro area are projected to be around 4 above zero on Monday, 6 above Tuesday, then 8 on Wednesday and 4 on Thursday followed by zero on Friday.

Some forecast models give the metro area a flake chance late Thursday and on Friday, but other models keep that snow to the south of us.

Cold streak trivia

According to the Minnesota State Climatology Office, the longest stretch of consecutive hours with temps of zero or colder in the Twin Cities was 186 hours….from 8 p.m. on Dec 31, 1911 to  1 p.m. on Jan 8, 1912. We’ll creep a bit above zero on several days this week.

If you like lists, you’ll enjoy this:

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.