Very cold this week; dangerous Monday wind chills in northern Minnesota

It’s very cold, but at least it’s not as cold in the Twin Cities metro area as it was yesterday. The high temp at MSP airport on Sunday was 3 below zero. We’ll see metro area high temps slightly above zero Monday afternoon. High temps in the southern half of Minnesota will rise slightly above zero this Monday, with sub-zero highs in northern Minnesota.

Wind chills will be coldest in northern Minnesota. Wind chill warnings (shaded darker blue) continue from today through Tuesday morning for roughly the northern third of Minnesota:

Here are details of the wind chill warnings in northeastern Minnesota:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 339 AM CST Mon Feb 8 2021 ...PROLONGED PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS... MNZ010>012-018>021-026-082145- /O.CON.KDLH.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210209T1800Z/ Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook and Lake-North Itasca- Central St. Louis-Southern Lake-Southern Cook-South Itasca- Including the cities of International Falls, Ely, Isabella, Bigfork, Hibbing, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Grand Marais, and Grand Rapids 339 AM CST Mon Feb 8 2021 ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 45 below zero. * WHERE...Northern Cook and Lake, South Itasca, Koochiching, Southern Cook, Southern Lake, North St. Louis, North Itasca and Central St. Louis Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Grand Portage Reservation and the Bois Forte Band, Deer Creek, Nett Lake and, Lake Vermillion areas. * WHEN...Until noon CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

The light-blue shaded counties on the following map are in a wind chill advisory from today through Tuesday morning:

Here are details of the wind chill advisory in central Minnesota:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1001 AM CST Mon Feb 8 2021 ...VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... .Arctic high pressure will remain in place through this week. Highs in the single digits above or below zero are expected each day with lows in the teens or 20s below zero. Combined with the wind, wind chill values each night will drop to 25 below to 35 below zero. Some improvement is expected each afternoon, but that will last only briefly. A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect tonight along and north of a line from near Mora to Eau claire, but through Tuesday morning north of a line from Benson to Little Falls. MNZ041>043-047>049-055-090015- /O.CON.KMPX.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-210209T1800Z/ Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-Swift- Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Little Falls, Morris, Glenwood, St Cloud, and Benson 1001 AM CST Mon Feb 8 2021 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Very cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 30 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of central and west central Minnesota. * WHEN...Until noon CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

Metro area wind chills will be in the teens below zero at times today and tonight.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Temperature trends

Low temps late Monday night and early Tuesday morning dip to the 20s below zero in the north, with teens below zero and single-digits below zero to the south:

Tuesday highs are above zero in most areas:

Tuesday afternoon wind chills are in the 20s below zero in northern Minnesota:

Back to high temperatures, Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be around 8 above on Tuesday and Wednesday, then 4 on Thursday and zero on Friday.  

There aren’t any immediate signs of a significant warmup. The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows a strong signal for below-normal temps in Minnesota and Wisconsin next weekend into the start of the following week:

The European forecast model shows the start of a temperature recovery around Feb. 16 and Feb. 17, but temps on those days could still be a bit below normal.

Flake chance returns on Thursday

Southern and central Minnesota will have a chance of light snow on Thursday and Thursday night.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern for Thursday:

We’ll have updates as we go through the week.

Streak ends

November, December and January were all warmer than normal in the Twin Cities. February may very well end up as our first colder than normal month in the metro area since last October.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.