An arctic weekend; updated wind chill warnings, including the metro area

Our official Saturday low temp at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 8 below zero. Cloud cover kept lows in check for us, but mostly clear skies in northern Minnesota allowed temps to plummet into the -40s in many locations, with -50 reported 25 miles east of Ely. Here are some Saturday morning lows posted by the National Weather Service:

...SATURDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURE REPORTS...

Location                     Temp      Time/Date       Provider            

Ely 25 E                     -50 F     0702 AM 02/13   COOP                

Babbitt                      -46 F     0700 AM 02/13   COOP                

Effie MN-1 Mile Post 194     -45 F     0740 AM 02/13   MNDOT               

Kabetogama                   -44 F     0700 AM 02/13   COOP                

Bigfork Airport              -44 F     0713 AM 02/13   AWOS                

Ash Lake RWIS                -44 F     0750 AM 02/13   MNDOT               

Effie RAWS                   -43 F     0807 AM 02/13   RAWS                

Celina 2 E                   -43 F     0900 AM 02/13   COOP                

Embarrass                    -42 F     0700 AM 02/13   COOP                

Black River at Loman         -42 F     0800 AM 02/13   HADS                 

3.8 S Tower                  -42 F     0730 AM 02/13   COOP                

Cass Lake DNR RAWS           -41 F     0701 AM 02/13   RAWS                

Cotton                       -41 F     0700 AM 02/13   COOP                

Cass Lake                    -41 F     0800 AM 02/13   COOP                

5.1 N Floodwood              -41 F     0830 AM 02/13   COOP                

International Falls Airport  -41 F     0654 AM 02/13   ASOS                

Robinson Lake                -41 F     0755 AM 02/13   MNDOT               

Squaw Lake MN-46 MP 25       -41 F     0755 AM 02/13   MNDOT               

Ball Bluff RWIS              -41 F     0636 AM 02/13   MNDOT               

Cotton US-53 Mile Post 41    -41 F     0726 AM 02/13   MNDOT                

Skibo RAWS                   -41 F     0722 AM 02/13   RAWS                

Most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have Saturday highs in the single-digits below zero, with teens below zero in parts of northwestern Minnesota. Parts of the Twin Cities metro area could briefly flirt with zero degrees Saturday afternoon. That’s beyond cold — our average Twin Cities high on Feb. 13 is 28 degrees!

Wind chill warnings continue in northwestern Minnesota Saturday through noon on Monday, with mainly wind chill advisories elsewhere in central and northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin.

It’ll be a dry Saturday in most areas. Far southern Minnesota could see some light snow showers.

Dangerous wind chills

The coldest wind chills in many areas will be Saturday night and Sunday morning:

The wind chill warning in the Twin Cities metro area starts at midnight Saturday night and runs to 11 a.m. Sunday:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 343 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WIND CHILL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... .A Wind Chill Warning is now effect for all of central and southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin for tonight through Sunday morning. Wind chill values during this time are expected to range between 35 degrees below zero and 50 degrees below zero. A Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect through today along and north of a line from Montevideo, to St. Cloud, to Mora. South of this line the Wind Chill Advisory will expire at noon today. In the advisory area, wind chill values will be near 25 degrees below zero. A Wind Chill Watch remains in effect Sunday night through Monday morning for areas west of Interstate 35, where wind chill values around 35 degrees below zero will be possible. MNZ052-053-060>063-070-078-WIZ014>016-023>028-131745- /O.UPG.KMPX.WC.A.0001.210214T0600Z-210214T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KMPX.WC.W.0001.210214T0600Z-210214T1700Z/ /O.CON.KMPX.WC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-210213T1800Z/ Isanti-Chisago-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Dakota-Goodhue- Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire- Including the cities of Cambridge, Center City, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Hastings, Red Wing, Osceola, Rice Lake, Ladysmith, Hudson, River Falls, Menomonie, Durand, Chippewa Falls, and Eau Claire 343 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY... ...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 45 below zero. For the Wind Chill Advisory, wind chills as low as 30 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Wisconsin and east central and southeast Minnesota. * WHEN...For the Wind Chill Warning, from midnight tonight to 11 AM CST Sunday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, until noon CST today. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves. Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

Temperature trends

Low temps Saturday night and early Sunday approach 30 below zero in parts of northern Minnesota:

Parts of the Twin Cities metro area may dip to -20 or colder.

Sunday highs stay below zero in all locations:

This will probably be our coldest Valentine’s Day high temp in the Twin Cities in the past 100 years or so:

The coldest Feb. 14 high temp in Twin Cities weather records is 5 below zero, set in 1920. We’ll see if we tie or break that record!

Low temps Sunday night/early Monday are in the 20s below zero in most spots:

Monday highs are within a few degrees of zero in most areas:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be around zero on Monday, followed by 9 above zero on Tuesday, then 12 on Wednesday, and 18 Thursday. We could top out in the upper 20s on Friday. That’s not bad, since our average Twin Cities high on Feb 19 is 30.

Snowstorm heads for Texas and Oklahoma

A winter storm will bring heavy snow or a wintry mix to much of Texas and Oklahoma this weekend.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern for Sunday through Monday morning:

Oklahoma City could see 10 inches of snow by Monday:

Here are projected snow totals in Texas:

The storm track will definitely stay well to the south of Minnesota this weekend.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.