Arctic cold for Monday; then temps gradually rebound

The official Sunday low temperature at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 19 below zero. Our Sunday high at MSP airport was 4 below zero. That’s beyond “cold”; our average Twin Cities high temp is 29 degrees on Feb. 14.

The metro area and most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will see Monday morning lows in the 20s below zero, with 30s below zero in parts of northern Minnesota:

Wind chill warnings cover most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin Sunday evening into Monday morning:

Wind chill warnings also cover all of northern Minnesota. Here are details of the wind chill warning that includes the Twin Cities metro area Sunday evening through 10 a.m. on Monday, from the NWS:

MNZ045-052-053-060>063-070-078-WIZ014>016-023>028-150445- /O.EXB.KMPX.WC.W.0001.210215T0000Z-210215T1600Z/ /O.EXT.KMPX.WC.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-210215T0000Z/ Kanabec-Isanti-Chisago-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Dakota- Goodhue-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa- Eau Claire- Including the cities of Mora, Cambridge, Center City, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Hastings, Red Wing, Osceola, Rice Lake, Ladysmith, Hudson, River Falls, Menomonie, Durand, Chippewa Falls, and Eau Claire 231 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING... ...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST MONDAY... * WHAT...For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 40 below zero. For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 25 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Wisconsin and east central and southeast Minnesota. * WHEN...For the Wind Chill Warning, from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Monday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, until 6 PM CST this evening. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves. Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

High temperatures Monday will be slightly below zero in most areas:

A few spots in the Twin Cities metro area could briefly flirt with zero Monday afternoon.

Winter storm hits the South

A winter storm is bringing several inches of snow to portions of Texas and Oklahoma this Sunday, and the snow will continue into early Monday before moving off to the northeast.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern for Sunday evening through Monday morning:

Here are projected snow totals in Texas:

Winter storm warnings extend from New Mexico through Texas and Oklahoma and northeastward to New England, due to the expected combination of snow and freezing rain:

Temperature trends

Temperatures slowly recover as we go from Tuesday through Friday; a few degrees warmer (or “less cold”) each day. Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be around 7 above zero on Tuesday, followed by 14 on Wednesday and 17 Thursday. We could top out around 20 degrees on Friday.  One forecast model gives the metro area highs in the upper 20s on Saturday, then around 30 on Sunday. This week is expected to be mainly dry, with a few flakes possible on Wednesday.

We may end the month with a stretch of relatively mild (for Feb.) days. The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows a tendency for above normal temperatures in Minnesota and western Wisconsin from Feb. 22 through Feb. 28:

We’ll see if that pans out!

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.