Warmer weather and gusty winds this afternoon; Tuesday flakes in the north

Many areas reach 40 or warmer today

Just last Monday, we were excited about reaching a high of zero degrees in the Twin Cities. We were ending a long stretch of below-zero temps.

We have a good shot at hitting a high of 40 degrees or higher today in the metro area. The last time that we saw 40 degrees or more in the Twin Cities was Dec. 23. Our average Twin Cities high is 31 degrees this time of year.

Highs of 40 degrees or higher are expected this afternoon across most of Minnesota, with some 30s in northeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Wind gusts of 18-28 mph are forecast this afternoon, and southwestern Minnesota may see gusts over 30 mph. The Duluth office of the National Weather Service notes that Lake Superior ice may be breaking away today near the Twin Ports:

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Ice danger
National Weather Service

Rain and snow chances

Scattered showers are expected to spread across parts of northern and central Minnesota as we go through Monday afternoon. We could see a sprinkle in the Twin Cities metro area late this afternoon or this evening. A mix of rain showers and flakes is possible Monday evening in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

A low pressure system will spread snow across northern Minnesota Tuesday, with a chance of rain showers or a mix in the south by afternoon.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern for Tuesday and Tuesday evening:

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Simulated radar Tuesday and Tuesday evening
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

Tuesday highs will be mainly in the 30s, with some lower 40s in far southern Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin:

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Tuesday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Twin Cities metro area highs retreat to the mid-30s Wednesday, followed by lower 30s on Thursday and mid-30s Friday.

Sunday snow recap

The Sunday snowfall total at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International airport was six-tenths of an inch. I saw 1.2 inches reported at the National Weather Service office in Chanhassen and 1.5 inches at Prior Lake.

The highest Sunday snow totals were in southeastern Minnesota, including 6.5 to 7.5 inches in Mabel, in Fillmore County:

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Snow totals Sunday Feb. 21
National Weather Service

Some of that snow will be melting today and tomorrow.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.