A mild Saturday, then snow overnight

Updated snow forecast

Our average Twin Cities high is 33 degrees this time of year. Parts of the metro may briefly top 40 degrees Saturday afternoon.

Saturday highs range from upper teens in far northwestern Minnesota to lower 40s in the south:

rt0227h2
Saturday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Sunday highs will be mainly in the 20s, with some lower 30s in the metro area and far southern Minnesota plus western Wisconsin.

Snow Saturday night/early Sunday

The northern third of Minnesota could see some scattered light snow showers this Saturday. After that, our snow chances shift to the south. A low pressure system will spin moisture over much of the southern third of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro area, and into Wisconsin Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern for Saturday evening through Sunday morning:

rt0227rad
Simulated radar Saturday evening through Sunday morning
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

There will be several inches of snow in many areas, with 2 to 4 inches possible in the Twin Cities metro area by Sunday morning:

rt0227snow
Snow forecast Saturday night into Sunday morning
National Weather Service

Winter storm watches have been issued for southwestern Minnesota and over to Mankato from 6 p.m. Saturday through the overnight hours, with winter weather advisories for the Twin Cities metro area into west-central and northwestern Wisconsin from Saturday evening through the overnight hours and into early Sunday:

rt0227adv2
Advisories and watches Saturday night into early Sunday
National Weather Service

Here are details of the metro area winter weather advisory, which begins at 9 p.m. Saturday and runs to 9 a.m. Sunday:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 354 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 ...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT... .A quick moving but complex winter system will impact the area beginning this evening through Sunday morning. A band of snow will set up from southwestern Minnesota up through northwest Wisconsin as a surface low deepens across Iowa. Snowfall totals generally look to be in the 2 to 4 inch range with amounts quickly tapering off on either side of the band. A narrow corridor of of 5 to 7 inches with isolated higher amounts appears most likely from near Sioux Falls to Mankato. Southern Minnesota may see more of a wintry mix at times, but little to no ice accumulation is expected. Precipitation will come to an end Sunday morning. MNZ059>063-068>070-078-271800- /O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0007.210228T0300Z-210228T1500Z/ Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-Scott-Dakota- Goodhue- Including the cities of Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, Hastings, and Red Wing 354 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central and southeast Minnesota. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow may initially mix with rain before becoming all snow. Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

And here are details of the winter storm watch that begins at 6 p.m. Saturday in southwestern Minnesota and parts of south-central Minnesota:

MNZ073>075-082-083-091-271800- /O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0004.210228T0000Z-210228T1200Z/ Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Martin- Including the cities of Redwood Falls, New Ulm, St Peter, St James, Mankato, and Fairmont 354 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches possible. Locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest Minnesota. * WHEN...From this evening through late tonight. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of over 1 inch per hour are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Update

This Updraft blog will be updated around 10:15 a.m. with new info on the Saturday night snow, plus Sunday forecast details and a look at the week ahead.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.

Your support matters.

You make MPR News possible. Individual donations are behind the clarity in coverage from our reporters across the state, stories that connect us, and conversations that provide perspectives. Help ensure MPR remains a resource that brings Minnesotans together.