Mild daylight hours Saturday; snow or mix overnight into early Sunday
Cooler Sunday and Monday, then temps rebound
Some people have enjoyed seeing our snow cover shrink over the past few days. Snow lovers want to see more snow. Our weekend weather will have one day for each of those two groups.
Mild Saturday
Our average Twin Cities high is 33 degrees this time of year. Parts of the metro area will top out in the lower 40s this Saturday afternoon. Saturday highs range from upper teens in far northwestern Minnesota to the lower 40s in the south and into western Wisconsin. Winds will be light in most areas. Far northern Minnesota could see scattered light snow showers or flurries at times.
Snow Saturday night/early Sunday
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A low pressure system will spin moisture over much of the southern third of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro area, and into Wisconsin Saturday evening into Sunday morning.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern for Saturday evening through Sunday morning:
There will be several inches of snow in many areas, with 2 to 4 inches possible in the Twin Cities metro area by Sunday morning:
In the Twin Cities, the precipitation may begin as a mix of rain and wet flakes in the 9 p.m. to 11 p.m. time frame Saturday evening.
Winter storm watches have been issued from southwestern Minnesota over to Mankato from 6 p.m. Saturday through the overnight hours. Winter weather advisories cover the Twin Cities metro area into west-central and northwestern Wisconsin from Saturday evening through the overnight hours and into early Sunday:
Here are details of the metro area winter weather advisory, which begins at 9 p.m. Saturday and runs to 9 a.m. Sunday:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 354 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 ...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT... .A quick moving but complex winter system will impact the area beginning this evening through Sunday morning. A band of snow will set up from southwestern Minnesota up through northwest Wisconsin as a surface low deepens across Iowa. Snowfall totals generally look to be in the 2 to 4 inch range with amounts quickly tapering off on either side of the band. A narrow corridor of of 5 to 7 inches with isolated higher amounts appears most likely from near Sioux Falls to Mankato. Southern Minnesota may see more of a wintry mix at times, but little to no ice accumulation is expected. Precipitation will come to an end Sunday morning. MNZ059>063-068>070-078-271800- /O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0007.210228T0300Z-210228T1500Z/ Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-Scott-Dakota- Goodhue- Including the cities of Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, Hastings, and Red Wing 354 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central and southeast Minnesota. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow may initially mix with rain before becoming all snow. Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour are possible.
And here are details of the winter storm watch that begins at 6 p.m. Saturday in southwestern Minnesota and parts of south-central Minnesota:
MNZ073>075-082-083-091-271800- /O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0004.210228T0000Z-210228T1200Z/ Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Martin- Including the cities of Redwood Falls, New Ulm, St Peter, St James, Mankato, and Fairmont 354 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches possible. Locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest Minnesota. * WHEN...From this evening through late tonight. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of over 1 inch per hour are possible.
You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.
Forecast models do not yet agree on the areas that will get the heaviest snow, prompting this from the Twin Cities NWS:
Temperature trends
Sunday highs will be in the 20s in many areas, with lower 30s in the metro area and far southern Minnesota plus western Wisconsin:
Sunday afternoon wind gusts will be over 20 mph at times:
Plotted wind gusts are in knots, with 18 knots equal to about 21 mph.
Monday will be cool, then warmer-than-normal temps will return. Twin Cities highs are projected to reach the mid 20s Monday, followed by lower 40s Tuesday, mid 40s Wednesday, upper 40s Thursday and mid 40s Friday.
February snow
The official Twin Cities snow total (measured at MSP airport) is only 4.4 inches this month. We’ve seen only one day this February with one inch or more of new snow at MSP airport …2.1 inches on Feb 4.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.