Snow moves in Saturday night, lingers into Sunday morning

Think of our Saturday weather as a preview of spring. Many spots in southern Minnesota topped 40 degrees Saturday afternoon, and the high temp at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 47. That equals our average Twin Cities high temp on March 26! Our average Feb. 27 Twin Cities high is just 33 degrees.

Temps retreat on Sunday, and some of us will be shoveling snow.

Snow update

A low pressure system will spin moisture over roughly the southern half of Minnesota and on into Wisconsin as we go from Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Parts of northeastern Minnesota will also see a bit of snow.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern for Saturday evening through Sunday morning:

Southeastern Minnesota may have rain or a rain/snow mix for several hours before the transition over to snow. The Twin Cities metro area could also see a rain/snow mix late Saturday evening, then mostly snow after midnight and into Sunday morning.

Snow amounts

A swath of 2 to 4 inches of snow, with some smaller areas of 5 inches or more, is possible by Sunday morning from southwestern Minnesota through the Twin Cities metro area and on into Wisconsin:

The small, yellow-shaded area in southwestern Minnesota could see 6 inches or more of snow by Sunday morning.

Advisories

Winter weather advisories have been issued for Saturday night into Sunday morning from southwestern Minnesota through the metro area and into west-central and northwestern Wisconsin:

The advisory started at 6 p.m. this Saturday in southwestern Minnesota, with a 9 p.m. Saturday start in the Mankato area. The winter weather advisory starts at midnight Saturday night in the Twin Cities metro area and it’ll continue until 10 a.m. Sunday.

Here are details of the advisory in the Twin Cities:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 305 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 ...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT... .A quick moving system will impact the area beginning this evening through Sunday morning. A band of snow will set up from southwestern Minnesota up through northwest Wisconsin as a surface low deepens across Iowa. Snowfall totals generally look to be in the 3 to 5 inch range with amounts quickly tapering off on either side of the band. A narrow corridor of of 5 to 7 inches with isolated higher amounts appears most likely from near Marshall to Mankato. South central Minnesota may see more of a wintry mix at times, but little to no ice accumulation is expected. Precipitation will come to an end Sunday morning. MNZ059>063-068>070-078-280515- /O.EXT.KMPX.WW.Y.0007.210228T0600Z-210228T1600Z/ Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-Scott-Dakota- Goodhue- Including the cities of Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, Hastings, and Red Wing 305 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central and southeast Minnesota. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

Here are details of the advisory that started at 6 p.m. Saturday in southwestern Minnesota:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 301 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 IAZ001-MNZ072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ056-062-066-067-280515- /O.UPG.KFSD.WS.A.0002.210228T0000Z-210228T1200Z/ /O.EXA.KFSD.WW.Y.0009.210228T0000Z-210228T1200Z/ Lyon-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-Moody- Minnehaha-Turner-Lincoln- 301 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. * WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast South Dakota, northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota. This includes the tribal lands of the Flandreau Santee Sioux Tribal Nation. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Updates to the advisories may be posted by the NWS overnight and Sunday.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Minnesota road conditions can be found here. Wisconsin road conditions can be found here.

Temperature trends

Our Sunday high in the Twin Cities may happen before sunrise. We could start the day in the lower 30s, then see afternoon temps in the mid 20s.

Sunday highs range from upper teens in far northern Minnesota to 30s in the far south:

It’ll be breezy Sunday, with gusts over 20 mph:

Plotted wind gusts are in knots, with 20 knots equal to about 23 mph.

Monday will be cool, then warmer-than-normal temps will return. Twin Cities highs are projected to reach the mid 20s Monday, followed by lower 40s Tuesday, mid 40s Wednesday, upper 40s Thursday and mid 40s on Friday. Mild temps are also expected next weekend.

Above-normal temps may linger into the second week of March. The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows a strong chance of above normal temps in Minnesota and Wisconsin from March 7 through March 13:

We’ll see if that pans out.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.