Temps keep climbing this weekend; records could fall next week

Parts of Minnesota are in drought

The snowmelt continues. I could see and hear the water from the melting snow as I took a walk with my wife this afternoon.

Our official Twin Cities high temp was 46 degrees Friday afternoon, matching our Thursday high. Our average Twin Cities high temp is only 36 degrees this time of year. The metro area will top out in the upper 40s on Saturday, sharing 40s with most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

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Saturday forecast highs
National Weather Service

There will be some 50s in southwestern Minnesota and parts of west-central Minnesota.

Sunday will be even warmer, with widespread 50s and some 60s to the southwest:

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Sunday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Some spots in the Twin Cities metro area could briefly touch 60 degrees Sunday afternoon.

Our high temps keep trending upward as we start next week. Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the lower 60s on Monday, followed by mid 60s Tuesday. Temps retreat after that, with metro area highs in the lower 50s Wednesday and around 50 degrees on Thursday and Friday.

Will we break any records this weekend or next week? That’s a difficult task, since Twin Cities record highs are in the upper 60s or lower 70s over most of the next few days:

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Twin Cities March weather extremes
NOAA data via Minnesota State Climatology Office

There is one Twin Cities record high within reach; the record high next Tuesday (March 9) is 61. We stand a good chance of breaking that daily record.

Drought update

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows moderate drought over much of the northern third of Minnesota plus parts of west-central and southwestern Minnesota:

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Drought update this week
U.S. Drought Monitor/USDA/NOAA/University of Nebraska-Lincoln

Parts of Kittson County in far northwestern Minnesota and Rock County in the far southwestern Minnesota are in severe drought right now.

The yellow-shaded area (which includes the Twin Cities metro) is listed as abnormally dry, but not yet in drought.

Any rain or snow?

This weekend and Monday are looking fairly dry, but we could see some rain Tuesday night and Wednesday. The Canadian forecast model (GEM, or Global Environmental Multiscale model) is showing the following precipitation pattern from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon:

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GEM model precipitation rate Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
Canadian Meteorological Centre, via Tropicaltidbits.com

We’ll see if that forecast changes as we get closer to Wednesday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.