Sunny, mild, windswept Saturday; rain mainly north Sunday

Happy spring equinox! I hope your crocuses are enjoying it as much as mine along the south side of the house are.

Crocuses blooming in Minneapolis, March 19, 2021
Crocuses blooming in Minneapolis on Friday, March 19.
Bill Endersen | MPR News

Balmy but windy Saturday

Saturday will be a mild but windy day. A weak low pressure system from the west is nudging up against the dry high pressure that is bringing us delightful sunshine for a third day. The tight pressure gradient between the two systems is generating a strong south wind to bring in bring in mild, dry air.

High temperatures should range from the mid 50s in the south to the low 60s in the northwest with the Twin Cities topping out in the upper 50s Saturday afternoon. Winds will blow 15 to 30 mph with stronger gusts in eastern Minnesota and 20 to 35 mph with gusts in excess of 40 mph in western parts of the state.

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Wildfire risk Saturday afternoon and evening

The rather balmy temperatures and very dry air will create a wildfire risk today, mainly in eastern Minnesota during the afternoon and into the evening.

Wildfire risk on Saturday
Wildfire risk on Saturday
Twin Cities National Weather Service

Red Flag Warning

The greatest risk of wildfires might be north of the Twin Cities where the air aloft is exceptionally dry. Any wildfire that breaks out there could heat the surface layer of air enough to mix the very dry air aloft to the surface and lower the local dew points even more. So a Red Flag Warning has been issued for gusty winds and low relative humidities from noon until 7 p.m. on Saturday for Pine, Carlton and southern St. Louis Counties. That’s from south of Hinckley north to the Duluth and Floodwood area.

Red Flag Warning Saturday afternoon and into evening
Red Flag Warning Saturday afternoon and into evening
Duluth National Weather Service

Rain for some on Sunday

Sunday will be mild again. The Twin Cities might reach 60 degrees. But clouds will increase beginning early as the aforementioned low pressure system approaches.

Rain will reach northwestern Minnesota late Sunday morning and spread east to the Arrowhead. Scattered showers might break out across the southern half of the state including the Twin Cities later in the day.

Soggy storm from the southwest

A much larger weather system from the Texas panhandle will spread rain up through Iowa on Monday and into southernmost Minnesota late in the day. Precipitation will reach all of the state except maybe the northwest corner on Tuesday and linger into Wednesday for some.

While most of the precipitation will be in the form of rain, forecast models are painting out the likelihood of snow to shovel and maybe plow from west central Minnesota northeast through the Leech Lake area and on to the Iron Range.

The storm system will also bring in cooler temperatures more typical for late March for a few days.

May-like April?

Looking farther ahead, the outlook for April is for favorable prospects of warmer-than-normal temperatures for most of the country including the Upper Midwest.

Temperature outlook for April
Temperature outlook for April
NOAA Weather Prediction Center