Warm and breezy Monday, t-storm chance by Monday evening

Rain at times Tuesday through Friday

The Sunday high temp at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 77 degrees. That was four degrees shy of our Twin Cities record high for April 4. Our average Twin Cities high is only 52 degrees this time of year.

I saw an 80 degree reading at Holman Field Airport in St. Paul around 2 p.m. Sunday, and some spots in southwestern and south-central Minnesota topped 80 briefly.

Southerly winds ahead of a cold front will deliver highs in the 80s to much of the southern half of Minnesota Monday afternoon:

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Monday forecast highs
National Weather Service

We’re likely to set a new record high for April 5 in the Twin Cities…the current record is 80. There’ll be a lot of 70s to the north, with a few 60s in northeastern Minnesota and the far northwest. Areas near Lake Superior will top out in the 50s.

It’ll feel summery in the southern half of Minnesota, as Monday afternoon dew points climb into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Monday wind gusts will be in the 15-20 mph range:

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Monday 1 p.m. forecast wind gusts
National Weather Service

Plotted wind gusts are in knots, with 16 knots equal to around 18 mph.

Thunder chances Monday evening

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop out ahead of an advancing cold front late Monday afternoon and Monday evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern Monday afternoon and evening:

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Simulated radar Monday afternoon through Monday evening
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

Thunderstorms may develop in some areas that look dry in the loop. An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible late Monday afternoon and Monday evening. The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a marginal risk of severe weather Monday afternoon into Monday night for much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

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Severe weather outlook Monday evening/night
National Weather Service

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Wet at times this week

In addition to the Monday p.m. rain chances, the Twin Cities metro area will have a chance of showers and a thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon. We’ll then have periods of rain Tuesday night, Wednesday and Thursday, with a few t-storms also possible. We’ll also have a chance of scattered showers on Friday. We could tally one to two inches of rain this week.

Back to temperatures, Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the mid 60s Tuesday, followed by lower 60s Wednesday, around 60 Thursday and Friday.

Record warmth in 1991

I was looking at record April highs in the Twin Cities and noticed three consecutive days of record highs from April 5 through April 7 in 1991:

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Twin Cities April weather data
NOAA data, via the Minnesota State Climatology Office

We had a high of 80, followed by 86 the next day and then 83. That was an impressive stretch of summery weather in early April!

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.

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