Warmer Monday; 70s in parts of Minnesota
Update on the Sunday night and Monday wintry mix to the north
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As I watched the rain showers change to wet snowflakes (for a few minutes) Sunday afternoon, I tried to imagine how people were reacting. Most people aren’t amused by snowflakes on April 25! As expected, the flakes changed back over to rain in St. Paul; they were just a speed bump on our journey through spring.
It was a very chilly Sunday, with a high temp at MSP Airport of just 46 degrees. Our average Twin Cities high is 63 degrees this time of year.
Sunday evening through Monday
The main area of rain and snow Sunday evening will be in northern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. It transitions to mainly snow overnight, and an inch or two of snow could accumulate by Monday along the North Shore of Lake Superior:
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“Tonight” in the graphic above refers to Sunday night.
Another wave of precipitation (mainly rain, with a thunder chance) moves into western Minnesota late Sunday night and spreads to the east and northeast Monday morning.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon:
NOAA’s NAM model shows a similar pattern:
Central and northern Minnesota have the best rain/thunder chances Monday afternoon, with a lower chance to the south.
Temperature trends
A warm front moves into southern Minnesota on Monday, delivering highs in the 70s:
Some spots in far southwestern Minnesota could top 80 degrees.
Twin Cities metro area highs could range from 60s in the north metro to around 70 in the south metro. Our highs depend on how far the warm front progresses and whether there are breaks in the cloud cover to our south. Central Minnesota will top out in the 50s, with 40s and 30s in northern Minnesota.
Winds will gust over 20 mph in many areas on Monday:
The forecast gusts are in knots, with 22 knots equal to around 25 mph.
Back to temperatures, Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the lower 60s Tuesday, followed by mid 60s Wednesday and Thursday. We could hit the lower 70s on Friday. One forecast model gives us highs in the 70s next weekend, and above normal-temps may stay with us into the start of the following week. The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows a tendency for above-normal temps in our neck of the woods from May 1 through May 5:
We’ll see if that pans out!
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.
