Another day of sunshine Wednesday, then rain chances return
After recent frosty mornings, temperatures finally return to average May warmth across the state
Seasonably warm temperatures return Wednesday and linger through the weekend. Meanwhile, beneficial rain returns into the forecast, but not as much as Minnesota needs.
Wednesday’s forecast
The high pressure that sat over Minnesota Tuesday has shifted east as forecast, and it is currently sitting over Wisconsin as of Wednesday morning. This has taken the core of the coldest air with it, so most of Minnesota started the day 5 to 10 degrees milder than Tuesday, with much of the state in the 30s and 40s, although the Arrowhead began the day in the 20s.
Because of this, far fewer places in southern Minnesota began the day with frost. (It is late in the season for frost south, but still more common in central and northern Minnesota this time of year.)
On the backside of the high pressure, there is a light wind flow from the south that spreads across Minnesota during the day Wednesday. This warms the entire state into the 60s, with a couple 70s possible west.
That finally puts southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, back near more typical May warmth after spending the past week cooler than average.
Fortunately, winds stay light, because the dry, sunny, and warmer conditions will cause most of the state to have very low relative humidity (RH) Wednesday afternoon, and in northeastern Minnesota, that RH could drop into the teens.
This elevates the fire risk, which would be even higher if not for the lighter winds.
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Rain chances return
The high pressure that kept the dry and sunny conditions in place continues far enough east of Minnesota by Thursday that unsettled weather is able to make a comeback.
A few showers and a couple isolated storms are likely to make it into western Minnesota by Thursday afternoon, then occasional rain showers are possible for the entire state by Friday.
Scattered showers and isolated showers persist through the weekend, but it will be very hit-and-miss, with more dry breaks than wet periods.
The unsettled weather could continue into early next week, but no major storms are expected to hit Minnesota. Because much of the precipitation will be spotty and light, most of the state will see less than a tenth of an inch of total rainfall through next Wednesday.
Southern Minnesota may see slightly higher amounts due to a couple storms that clip south of the state.
It is unfortunate that the rain totals are expected to stay so low as May has been very dry for the entire state and more precipitation is needed.
Seasonable temperatures
By Thursday morning, the milder weather includes more morning temperatures in the 40s, and southern Minnesota finally ends the recent frost risk, which should be the end of morning frost for that part of the state until fall.
Highs remain fairly steady because the pattern has warmed, but the return of more clouds and shower chances keep the state from warming much beyond the 60s and low 70s at least through the weekend.
Here is that forecast for the Twin Cities through the weekend, showing how the Metro stays very close to the current “normal” high and low of 68 and 49:
Next week is likely to nudge even warmer, with a few more places seeing 70s, and a couple 80s possible south or west.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Monday through Friday morning.