Weekend forecast: Spotty showers possible at times, near-normal temps

Fishing opener climatology

The 2021 Minnesota fishing opener is this weekend. This is the latest possible date for our fishing opener. According to the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources:

Fishing seasons open for walleye, bass, northern pike and lake trout on Saturday, May 15. This year’s date is the latest possible opener under Minnesota statute, which sets the fishing opener as the Saturday two weeks prior to the Saturday of Memorial Day weekend.

Fishing opener climatology

The Minnesota State Climatology Office has compiled some interesting facts about past openers, including the following:

Opening day temperatures have started as low as 24 degrees at International Falls (1996,2004), and sub-freezing conditions have even affected Minneapolis (31 degrees in 1979). On the warm side, St. Cloud saw 92 degrees in 1987, Minneapolis reported 91 in 1987, and International Falls reached 88 in 1977.

Precipitation is not uncommon, but certainly is not the rule either. Three-quarters of past opening days have been free of measurable precipitation, and two-thirds of the fishing openers have been free of any precipitation, measurable or not. On those days with measurable rain, the amounts averaged close to a half-inch in the south and a quarter inch in the north. Rainfall has exceeded one inch once in St. Cloud, and twice in the Twin Cities, with a maximum of 1.64" in 1965. Snow, usually just a trace, was officially recorded in 1963, 1993, 2000, 2009 and 2013 at International Falls, and in 1968 at St. Cloud.

Weekend rain chances?

There’ll be a chance of scattered Saturday morning showers or sprinkles in eastern Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin. An isolated shower or sprinkle is possible Saturday afternoon.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from midnight Friday night through Saturday afternoon:

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Simulated radar midnight Friday night through Saturday afternoon
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

One forecast models shows spotty showers on Sunday, but there will be many dry hours too.

Weekend temps

Our average Twin Cities high temp is 69 degrees on May 15. Parts of the metro area will reach the upper 60s Saturday. Most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have Saturday highs in the 60s, with a few 70s in northwestern Minnesota:

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Saturday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Saturday afternoon wind gusts are expected to be in the 10-16 mph range in most spots:

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Saturday 1 p.m. forecast wind gusts
National Weather Service

Plotted gusts are in knots, with 13 knots equal to 15 mph.

Back to temperatures, the metro area could touch 70 degrees on Sunday. Highs in the 70s are on tap for roughly the northwestern half of Minnesota on Sunday, with highs just shy of 70 in several other locations:

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Sunday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.