A quiet start to the week; rain and thunder chances increase by Wednesday

Above normal temps all week

Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will continue in parts of Minnesota Sunday evening. Most of the Twin Cities metro area is expected to remain dry, but an isolated Sunday evening shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Any soakers in sight?

Monday may start out with areas of fog in east-central and southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Most areas will have a dry Monday, but scattered showers could develop in northeastern Minnesota by late Monday afternoon and Monday evening.

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A stray shower is possible on Tuesday, but meaningful rain may hold off until Wednesday. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Wednesday and Wednesday evening:

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Simulated radar Wednesday and Wednesday evening
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

It’s been dry in many locations lately, so it’s about time for some soaking rains. Periods of rain and a few thunderstorms are also likely in Minnesota and western Wisconsin Thursday and Friday.

Temperature trends

Our average Twin Cities high temp is 70 degrees on May 17. We could touch 80 degrees in the metro area Monday afternoon. Highs reach at least the 70s in most areas on Monday, with 80s in much of northern Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin:

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Monday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Monday afternoon wind gusts will be in the 13-18 mph range in most locations:

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Monday 1 p.m. forecast wind gusts
National Weather Service

Plotted gusts are in knots, with 15 knots equal to around 17 mph. Gusts over 20 mph are possible in southwestern Minnesota and in the far northwest.

Back to temperatures, Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the upper 70s Tuesday and Wednesday, then around 80 on Thursday and Friday. Dew points will be in the 60s Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, so it’ll feel summery.

Above-normal high temps are also a good bet next weekend and into the start of the following week. The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows a tendency for above-normal temps in Minnesota and Wisconsin from May 22 through May 26:

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Temperature outlook May 22 through May 26
NWS Climate Prediction Center

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.