Sunday chance of showers, isolated t-storm; warmer Memorial Day
A look at 50 years of Memorial Day weekend weather
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Some of us have seen rain showers this morning, while some areas have stayed dry. The most numerous showers late this morning are in south-central and southeastern Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin. There are a few areas of scattered showers elsewhere.
Additional areas of showers are expected to develop Sunday afternoon and evening in Minnesota and western Wisconsin. There could also be a few scattered thunderstorms, especially mid-Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.
The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a marginal risk (shaded dark green) of severe weather Sunday afternoon and evening in much of northern Minnesota and portions of central Minnesota:
Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible. The Storm Prediction Center updates their severe weather outlook every few hours.
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Here’s some info from the Duluth NWS:
And additional info from the Twin Cities office of the NWS:
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Midday Update
The marginal risk of severe weather has been extended southward by the NWS Storm Prediction Center, and now includes the far northwestern edge of the Twin Cities metro area:
I should mention that our t-storm chance in the north metro would tend to be mainly after 6 or 7 p.m.
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You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.
Milder on Memorial Day
Sunday afternoon highs will be in the 70s across much of western Minnesota, with mainly 60s to the east. There could be some 50s near Lake Superior.
Memorial Day highs will be mainly in the 70s:
There’ll be some 60s in northeastern Minnesota.
Monday afternoon wind gusts will be mainly in the 15-20 mph range:
Plotted gusts are in knots, with 16 knots equal to 18.4 mph.
Memorial Day rain chances mainly to the east and southeast
New computer model runs are cutting back on the Monday rain chances in most areas. There could be spotty showers and an isolated thunderstorm later Monday afternoon and Monday evening in southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential rain pattern for Monday afternoon and evening:
Temps ramp up this week
Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the upper 70s Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by mid 80s Thursday and upper 80s on Friday. It’ll also feel more humid later this week. The metro area could see highs around 90 degrees next weekend, with summery dew points.
Memorial Day weekend weather history
The Minnesota State Climatology Office posted an interesting look at Memorial Day weekend weather extremes. They included this look at our Twin Cities weather over the past 50 years:
I’ve highlighted the percentage of years with measurable rain on Saturday, Sunday and Monday during the 50 year period. Historically, Saturday is the rainiest day in the Twin Cities on Memorial Day weekend, and Memorial Day is the least rainy day. We’ve seen measurable rain in the Twin Cities on Memorial Day in 38% of the past 50 years.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.
