The pattern causing record heat in Seattle is also influencing Minnesota

The same weather pattern bringing record heat to the Pacific Northwest is also responsible for Minnesota’s recent wetter weather. However, as that pattern shifts, Minnesota goes back to hot and dry weather.

The pattern sitting over the Pacific Northwest is what meteorologists refer to as an Omega block, because it looks like that letter of the Greek alphabet. It surges a bubble of high pressure and warmer air in the center, with troughs of lower pressure and often cooler, more active weather on either side of the pattern. 

Here is how that upper level pattern looked as of Monday morning at 500 mb (about 18,000 ft. above sea level), where I highlighted the pressure contrast in purple to show how it looks like an omega:

The hot dry air it has pushed over the northwestern U.S. and Canada has demolished records, with many places hitting not just daily heat records, but setting all-time hottest temperatures. 

In Canada, Lytton, British Columbia, hit 116 degrees Fahrenheit Sunday, setting an all-time high for all of Canada.

Minnesota has been on the side of this pattern that is cooler and has lower pressure, contributing to the instability that brought showers and storms over the weekend. 

Monday and Tuesday

That same pattern that brought occasional showers and storms across Minnesota over the weekend stays in place Monday and Tuesday, bringing more chances for needed rain across the state. 

Although spotty activity is possible any time of day, in fact, central Minnesota is seeing a few showers already Monday morning, wet weather is most likely in the afternoon and evening hours.  

Rain totals will be hit-or-miss with most places under a quarter-inch, but higher amounts are likely in areas that fall right under thunderstorms.

Tuesday will start in the 50s and 60s, much like Monday morning did. Highs both days remain close to average, with temperatures in the upper 70s to mid-80s.

Extended outlook

By midweek, the broad weather pattern starts to shift. The intense ridge of high pressure bringing record heat west breaks down and slides east, eventually moving over the northern plains. 

For Minnesota, this change first moves off the instability, with a couple isolated showers still possible Wednesday, but overall, the state becomes much drier again the second half of the week. 

Here is the Twin Cities forecast through Thursday, showing those rain chances dropping each day:

Then, the heat is also expected to intensify again by the weekend, with 90s likely for most of the state. 

The extended outlook shows that heat could last much of next week too, and with a drier pattern back, this continues to be a concern given Minnesota’s current drought conditions.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Monday through Friday morning.