July Fourth weekend heat; update on Sunday rain chances
And the forecast track for Hurricane Elsa
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This will be a very warm July Fourth holiday weekend.
Our average Twin Cities high temperature is 83 degrees this time of year. Metro area highs will reach the low to mid 90s on Saturday. Highs will be in the 90s across most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin Saturday afternoon:
High temps reach the 90s again on Sunday in most areas, with a few 80s up along the North Shore of Lake Superior:
Sunday dew points will be in the sticky 60s:
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Back to high temperatures, Monday highs retreat to the 80s across most of northern Minnesota, with 90s elsewhere:
Rain chances?
Even though this is a holiday weekend, some people are probably hoping for a bit of rain. That’s because 82 percent of Minnesota is in drought right now, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor:
Some spots will see rain before this holiday weekend is over. Northwestern and north-central Minnesota will have a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday night and early on Sunday. That rain chance expands to include roughly the northern half of Minnesota by Sunday afternoon, then the rain chance spreads into the remainder of Minnesota plus western Wisconsin Sunday evening and overnight Sunday night.
The Twin Cities metro area could see a shower or a thunderstorm late Sunday afternoon, with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Sunday evening and overnight. Far southern Minnesota has the best chance of a shower or thunderstorm on Monday.
You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.
Fire danger update
The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources reminds us that fire danger is high in many areas right now:
The Minnesota DNR posts info on fire danger and burning restrictions here.
Hurricane Elsa
The National Hurricane Center is tracking Hurricane Elsa, which will affect Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Cuba this weekend and portions of Florida early next week. The National Hurricane Center has posted this forecast track for Elsa, along with the cone of uncertainty for that track:
Here’s the Friday afternoon update on Elsa:
BULLETIN Hurricane Elsa Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 ...ELSA MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 63.7W ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Warning for Jamaica. The Government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba. The Meteorological Service of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Dominica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * St. Lucia * Martinique * The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince * South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and Sint Eustatius * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 63.7 West. Elsa is moving toward the west near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected Saturday night and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday or Saturday night. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move near portions of central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Saturday. Slow weakening is expected to begin Saturday night or Sunday as Elsa passes near or over the Greater Antilles. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in the Windward Islands for the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic by late Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected on Jamaica late Saturday or Sunday, and are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...4 to 6 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet Jamaica...1 to 3 feet RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches today across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides. By early next week, Elsa is expected to impact portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba producing 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
The National Hurricane Center posts updated tropical advisories every three hours or so.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.
