Weekend forecast: Heat continues, humidity drops

Scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight Friday night

I’ll get to the weekend forecast shortly, but I first have to mention our Friday heat advisory.

Highs will reach the 90s in many areas Friday afternoon, with dew points in the 60s to around 70. Heat index values will be over 95 degrees at times this Friday afternoon and early evening. For that reason, the National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory from noon to 8 p.m. this Friday for the Twin Cities metro area and several additional counties in Minnesota and western Wisconsin, which are shaded orange in the lower portion of the following image:

Heat advisory noon to 8 p.m. Friday
National Weather Service

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Rain chances

Parts of northern and central Minnesota could see scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm Friday afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase across Minnesota and western Wisconsin Friday evening and overnight Friday night. A few showers and a thunderstorm could linger into early Saturday morning in southeastern Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin. Saturday afternoon and Sunday still look dry.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) forecast model shows the potential rain pattern from Friday evening through Saturday morning:

HRRR simulated radar Friday evening through Saturday morning
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

NOAA’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows less rain coverage than the HRRR model from Friday evening into Saturday morning;

NAM simulated radar Friday evening through Saturday morning
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

We need the rain, so I’m hoping the HRRR model is closer to the rain coverage that we see this Friday evening and overnight. Sunday looks dry in most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Severe weather potential

The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk of severe weather from Friday afternoon through Friday night in northern Minnesota and part of northwestern Wisconsin:

Severe weather outlook Friday afternoon through Friday night
NWS Storm Prediction Center

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in the slight risk area, which is shaded yellow. A marginal risk of severe weather (shaded dark green) includes additional parts of Minnesota and portions of Wisconsin. Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible. Our Twin Cities metro area thunderstorm chance may hold off until Friday evening and then continue into the overnight hours.

Weekend temps and dew points

Our average Twin Cities high temperature is 84 degrees this time of year. The metro area could reach the mid-90s this Saturday. Many locations will see highs in the 90s on Saturday, with 80s in far northern Minnesota:

Saturday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Drier air moves in behind a front on Saturday. Saturday morning dew points may still be a bit steamy in far southern Minnesota, but comfortable dew points will cover most of Minnesota by afternoon.

Saturday 1 p.m. forecast dew points
National Weather Service

Back to forecast high temps, Sunday highs will top 90 degrees in the south with 80s in northern Minnesota.

Sunday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Sunday dew points will be in the comfortable 50s.

Sunday 1 p.m. forecast dew points
National Weather Service

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.

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