Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Thunderstorm chances continue into Sunday; a severe t-storm is possible

Warmer temps to start the week

As of 5 p.m., the Saturday rainfall total at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 0.87 of an inch. That’s the highest single-day rainfall total at MSP airport since May 27.

Heavy rain Saturday afternoon prompted a flash flood warning that continues into Saturday evening in parts of La Crosse County, Monroe County and Vernon County of western Wisconsin:

Updates on the flood situation will be posted by the La Crosse office of the NWS. Winds aloft are fairly light, so slow-moving thunderstorms could cause additional areas of flooding Saturday evening and overnight.

More rain opportunities

Some additional areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Saturday evening and overnight Saturday night in portions of southern and central Minnesota and on into Wisconsin. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk of severe weather Saturday evening and overnight Saturday night in roughly the southern third of Minnesota plus portions of western Wisconsin. The slight risk area is shaded yellow in this severe weather discussion from the Twin Cities office of the NWS:

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Saturday evening and Saturday night severe weather outlook
National Weather Service

“This evening” refers to Saturday evening in the NWS graphic.

Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible. An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible in the area that’s shaded dark-green. The severe weather outlook is updated several times each day by the Storm Prediction Center.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Sunday rain chances?

A few showers and thunderstorms could linger into Sunday morning in parts of southern and central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. By Sunday afternoon, the best chance of showers and t-storms will be in southeastern Minnesota and parts of Wisconsin. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) forecast model shows the potential rainfall pattern Sunday afternoon and evening:

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HRRR model simulated radar Sunday afternoon and evening
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

All models don’t agree on the Sunday afternoon/evening rain chances. NOAA’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model brings a batch of showers and thunderstorms through the southern portion of the metro area Sunday afternoon:

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NAM model simulated radar Sunday afternoon and evening
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

We’ll see if the forecast models reach a consensus by Sunday.

Temperature trends

Sunday highs reach the 80s in most areas, with 70s near Lake Superior:

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Sunday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Sunday dew points will be in the steamy 70s in the south, with sticky 60s to the north:

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Sunday 1 p.m. forecast dew points
National Weather Service

Back to forecast highs, Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach 90 degrees on Monday, followed by mid 80s Tuesday and upper 80s Wednesday. Highs reach the mid 80s on Thursday then retreat to the lower 80s on Friday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.

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