Rainy, cooler weather returns to Minnesota
Despite a temperature drop, the state remains milder than average.
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A slow-moving disturbance brings rain across the state that may linger for part of the weekend. Despite slightly cooler temperatures, Minnesota stays above average for the first week of October.
Thursday’s forecast
Minnesota started Thursday off with everything from fog in northern Minnesota to a couple thunderstorms along the southeastern border.
This is because a boundary of low pressure is sitting over western Minnesota that is trapped between high pressure areas over the Rockies and Great Lakes. Thus, northeastern Minnesota still has more stable conditions (like the fog earlier, with sunshine much of the day), while western Minnesota is currently in the narrow flow of moisture between the highs and has a few showers and occasional storms.
That low pressure boundary slowly shifts east during the day, bringing rain chances to most of Minnesota by Thursday evening.
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There will be occasional thunderstorms also, but they are not expected to be severe.
For the Twin Cities, spotty activity could begin in the afternoon, however the most likely time for precipitation to begin is during the evening.
Meanwhile, mild temperatures continue, with all of Minnesota starting Thursday in the 50s and 60s, except for the Arrowhead in the 40s.
Because of the clouds and moisture moving in, highs will not be as warm as the past couple days. Most of the state will be in the 70s, with a couple low 80s, especially in eastern and northern Minnesota, which start the day with a bit more sunshine.
This is still 5 to 15 degrees above average for late September.
Cooler weather returns
As the low pressure area makes its slow trek eastward through Minnesota, Friday is likely to be the wettest day, with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the state. There will still be a few lingering showers Saturday and possibly even Sunday, but any activity becomes much spottier as the weekend progresses.
Rainfall will be predominantly in the quarter to three-quarter-inch range, however because everything is very slow moving, there are likely to be numerous reports of 1 to 2 inches or more from places that fall directly under a slow-moving shower or storm band.
The return of clouds and rain already cools temperatures slightly somewhat Thursday, but even cooler air moves in behind the low pressure.
Most of the state will still be in the 70s Friday, but by Saturday, northern Minnesota starts to see more 60s.
The trend of occasional 60s north, with mostly 70s south and west continues through at least early next week.
Here is that temperature trend for the Twin Cities:
Although not as warm as recent weather, this is still 5 to 10 degrees or more above average for the first week of October. Under the return of mostly sunny skies, it looks like a pleasant stretch of weather next week.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:48 a.m. Monday through Friday morning.
