A cooler and breezy Sunday, best rain chances northern Minnesota

Fall color update for leaf-peepers

Our average Twin Cities high is 61 degrees this time of year. We hit 79 degrees at MSP airport on Saturday, and we could creep slightly above 70 this afternoon.

70s will be confined to the metro area, southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, with cooler highs elsewhere:

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Sunday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Afternoon dew points will be mainly in the 50s, with sticky 60s in western Wisconsin:

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Sunday 1 p.m. forecast dew points
National Weather Service

Parts of west-central Minnesota and the northern half of Minnesota will have periods of showers and a few embedded t-storms at times today. Elsewhere in Minnesota, plus western Wisconsin, a passing shower/t-storm is possible today, but most of the day will be dry.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North-American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Sunday and Sunday evening:

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Simulated radar Sunday morning through Sunday evening
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a marginal risk of severe weather today and tonight in north-central and northeastern Minnesota and parts of northwestern Wisconsin. Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible. Here’s the Duluth NWS discussion of the severe weather outlook:

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Severe weather outlook for Sunday and Sunday evening
National Weather Service

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Fall color report

The percentage of changeover to fall colors is highest in the northern half of Minnesota plus the northeastern part of the Twin Cities metro area right now. Here’s the latest fall color report from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources:

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Fall colors on Saturday
Minnesota Department of Natural Resources

The dark-red shaded areas in northern Minnesota are past peak. Keep in mind that all deciduous trees are included in the fall color report, not just maples.

Wisconsin fall color info can be found here.

This Updraft blog will be updated around 10:15 a.m. with a look at the week ahead.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.