Winter storm warnings in northern Minnesota

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This feels more like early October than early November!

Our average Twin Cities high temp is 46 degrees this time of year. The metro area will top out in the 60s this Sunday, sharing 60s with much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. A few spots in southwestern Minnesota could top 70. North-central and northeastern Minnesota will see some 50s.

Monday highs will be mainly in the 50s, with some upper 40s in northwestern Minnesota:

Monday afternoon wind gusts will be in the 14-20 mph range in parts of the west and north:

Forecast gusts are in knots, with 13 knots equal to 15 mph.

Back to temperatures, Twin Cities high temps are projected to reach the mid 50s Tuesday, followed by lower 50s Wednesday, upper 40s Thursday and then chilly upper 30s on Friday.

Several weather forecast models show a strong low pressure system moving across the upper Midwest from Wednesday into early Friday. The precipitation from that system will probably start out as rain, then transition to wet snow at some point. The timing of the changeover to snow will depend on the exact track, speed and strength of the low pressure system.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System (GFS) shows the potential precipitation pattern from Wednesday through Friday:

The GFS forecast model shows the quickest changeover to snow in the northern third of Minnesota, with the potential for several inches of snow from Wednesday afternoon or evening into early Friday. The GFS model shows a delayed changeover to snow or a rain/snow mix to the south. That would give the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota much lower snow accumulations. Check forecast updates as we get closer to Wednesday and Thursday.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News 

, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News 

Don’t pay too much attention to forecast snow totals four or five days into the future.

The Duluth office of the National Weather Service has an excellent explanation of why snow forecasts are much more accurate as we get closer to the event:

Here is the text that accompanied the NWS graphic:

One year ago, we set a new Nov. 7 record high in the Twin Cities, hitting 

 degrees. Three days later, we had a Twin Cities high of 

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Ron Trenda

Author

After October-like temps this Sunday, temps will dip a bit on Monday. Temps really take a dive later this week. We have details on that, plus rain and snow chances.

Warm Sunday, mild Monday; cooler with rain/snow chances later this week

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