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By every forecast and measure possible, this holiday shopping season is slated to be a record-breaker. In fact, this whole year's shopping spree is setting records that not even the Grinch could stop.

U.S. shoppers are expected to spend up to $859 billion between this month and next, 

 the National Retail Federation. That could be as much as 10.5 percent more than what was spent during last year's record holiday shopping season.

What's more, the NRF expects a whopper of 

 — yes, trillion with a t — to be spent in 2021 altogether. In 2020, our shopping topped out at a mere $4 trillion.

One reason is that this year's holiday gift-buying began earlier than ever, boosting retail spending 

since August. Still, more people told NRF they plan to shop this key holiday weekend than did last year, and Black Friday 

that draws the biggest number of shoppers. 

People are expected to spend, on average, $785 on holiday gifts, 

Store discounts won't likely be as deep as in years past. This year has been lucrative, but also expensive for retailers, making them less willing and able to offer blowout sales.

 of retail workers during the pandemic has pushed stores to raise wages faster than they have in years. Amazon, for instance, 

 higher pay and other expenses prompted by a lack of workers cost the company $2 billion in the last quarter.

 it expects to spend $450 million on sending supplies by air instead of through snarled ports. It forecasts up to $650 million in lost sales from the supply-chain disruptions.

We are seeing the sharpest increase in inflation since 1990, according to 

 from October. And in surveys, people say this really worries them: Consumer sentiment is at 

This is really unusual; consumer sentiment normally moves in sync with spending.  But at least for now, inflation worries have not deterred holiday shoppers.

"I think people are worried, but it's sort of a forward-looking fear," says Akshat Goel, an economist at the data and analytics firm IHS Markit. Goel also points out that so far, some of the biggest price increases have been on 

, and those don't typically go on anyone's gift list. 

Besides, he adds, this holiday season would set a spending record even when adjusted for inflation. In fact, the spending surge throughout 2021 has been a key reason behind tie-ups at ports and other 

After 2020, a year of canceled trips, postponed weddings and skipped summer camps, many people entered 2021 ready to spend. The federal pandemic aid provided a huge boost to bank accounts, promping holiday levels of spending early in the year.

, "Consumers are ... spending because they can."   

Business and Economic News

Alina Selyukh

Author

Even the Grinch can't stop shoppers in what's predicted to be a record holiday season. 

Yes, we are shopping way more than ever

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