Rain/snow chance decreases Sat. afternoon; November snowfall extremes

Sunday dry in most areas

Nov. 26, 2021 in St. Paul
Ron Trenda/MPR News

Parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin have seen some light snow showers and light rain showers this Saturday morning. Spotty icing was reported on some roads in central and northern Minnesota. Updated Minnesota road conditions can be found here. Wisconsin road conditions can be found here.

By Saturday afternoon, south-central and southeastern Minnesota plus parts of western Wisconsin will have the best chance of scattered rain/snow showers. Areas of light snow will continue into Saturday afternoon in northeastern Minnesota and parts of northern Wisconsin. Here’s the Saturday snow outlook for those areas, from the Duluth NWS office:

Saturday snow potential
National Weather Service

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Sunday night snow chances

Most of Sunday looks dry. Northwestern Minnesota could see some light snow showers Sunday evening. Light snow moves across mainly the northern half of Minnesota overnight Sunday night. Light snow showers could be mixed with light rain at times overnight Sunday night to the south, including the Twin Cities metro area.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 6 p.m. Sunday though 6 a.m. Monday:

NAM simulated radar from 6 p.m. Sunday to 6 a.m. Monday
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) forecast model shows a similar precipitation pattern:

HRRR simulated radar from 6 p.m. Sunday to 6 a.m. Monday
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

Check forecast updates.

Temperature trends

Our average Twin Cities high temperature is 36 degrees on Nov. 27. Much of the metro area will have Saturday highs in the upper 30s. There’ll be a lot of 30s in Minnesota and Wisconsin Saturday afternoon, with highs reaching the 40s in far southern Minnesota and parts of west-central Minnesota.

Sunday highs will be mainly in the 30s, with some lower 40s in southwestern Minnesota:

Sunday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Far northern Minnesota will have Sunday highs in the 20s.

Sunday wind gusts will be highest in eastern Minnesota and parts of Wisconsin:

Sunday noon forecast wind gusts
National Weather Service

Forecast gusts are in knots, with 20 knots equal to 23 mph.

Back to temperatures, Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the mid 40s on Monday, followed by 40 Tuesday and then mid 40s again on Wednesday. We have a shot at 50 degrees Thursday afternoon, followed by a high around 40 on Friday. It still looks dry through most of the week.

November snow extremes

In the past 30 years, our average snow total for the entire month of November is 6.8 inches in the Twin Cities. MSP airport has recorded just 1.2 inches so far this November. We had 8.8 inches last November.

A look at Twin Cities snow totals over the past 9 years shows a range from 14.3 inches in Nov. 2019 to 6/10ths of an inch in Nov. 2017:

Twin Cities monthly and seasonal snow totals
NOAA data, via the Minnesota State Climatology Office

A look at snowfall data dating back to 1884 shows several Novembers with just a trace of snow in the Twin Cities, most recently in 2009. The snowiest November in Twin Cities weather records occurred in 1991, with 46.9 inches!

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.

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