Midweek storm may bring record warmth to Minnesota

Quiet and milder weather prevails until Tuesday, then a strong storm causes a huge temperature swing accompanied by high winds and a rain-snow mix.

Monday and Tuesday’s forecast

The state is predominantly under the influence of high pressure Monday morning, leading to light winds and mostly clear skies.

Despite this, morning lows were still above average, predominantly in the teens and 20s.

Mostly sunny skies prevail during the day and almost all of Minnesota can expect highs in the 30s, which is 5 to 15 degrees above average.

A few more clouds move in during the evening hours. 

Thanks to a flow of warmer winds from he southeast, Tuesday will be even milder, with most of Minnesota starting the day in the 20s. Highs will range from the mid-30s north to lower 40s south under partly sunny skies.

Midweek storm

Big changes are in store by Wednesday, ahead of a strong storm that may pass directly over the state.

First, the storm will spread very warm air across the region for December. Much of the state will make it into the 40s Wednesday, with some 50s possible in southern Minnesota.

Those temperatures would be even higher if not for the snowpack in southern Minnesota capping the warm potential. Despite the snow balancing the warmth somewhat, it is not out of the question a couple of records may be set.

Because of the warmth, much of the precipitation that initially moves in with the storm will be drizzle or light rain Wednesday morning.

The rain becomes more persistent in the afternoon and evening hours, and there could even be a couple thunderstorms southeast Wednesday evening.

Meanwhile, the cold front side of the storm starts pushing into northwestern Minnesota by Wednesday afternoon, dropping temperatures quickly and making more of the precipitation snow.

The cold front moves first into northwestern Minnesota, which could see up to 4 inches of snow is possible Wednesday into early Thursday.

As the front sweeps northwest to southeast, clearing through the state by late Wednesday, it not only drops temperatures, but it also causes very high winds. Most of Minnesota can expect gusts of at least 30 to 40 mph or higher by Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Wind gusts may top 60 mph in portions of southeastern Minnesota, including Rochester, prompting a high wind watch in that corner of the state.

The precipitation should clear by early Thursday, and winds diminish, but the cold air keeps funneling in.

Most of the state will see falling temperatures through the day, with temperatures only in the single digits north and low 20s south by Thursday afternoon. That brings the state slightly cooler than average through Saturday.

Here is the Twin Cities forecast through Friday (the 32 degrees Thursday is the forecast high set at midnight):

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Monday through Friday morning.