Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

20s return Monday afternoon; mild Tuesday, then temps plummet

Snow chances increase Tuesday evening into early Wednesday

Sea smoke rises from Lake Superior
Sea smoke rises from Lake Superior on a subzero morning near Two Harbors, Minn., on Sunday, Jan. 2, 2022.
Photo courtesy of Owen Dickinson

We’re running out of ways to say “cold”, so it’s good that our arctic weekend is ending.

The official high temp at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 5 above zero on Sunday, after a morning low of 14 below zero:

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Twin Cities climate data for Jan. 2, 2022
National Weather Service

Our average Twin Cities high is 24 degrees this time of year, with an average low temp of 11 degrees.

The coldest Jan. 2 high temp in Twin Cities weather records is 7 degrees below zero, in 1912.

Warmer temps!

Southerly winds will assist a nice temperature recovery Monday afternoon. Many locations will have Monday highs in the 20s, with a few lower 30s possible in southwestern Minnesota:

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Monday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Far northern Minnesota will see some teens.

Tuesday highs will range from teens in northwestern Minnesota to lower 30s in the far southeast:

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Tuesday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Twin Cities metro area highs will be around 30 degrees on Tuesday. Colder air moves in Tuesday night and Wednesday. Metro area temps will fall through the teens on Wednesday, then highs in the single digits are expected on Thursday and Friday. We could reach the 20s next Saturday.

Next snow?

A cold front is expected to move through Minnesota late Tuesday and Tuesday night, as a low pressure system spins moisture over Minnesota and Wisconsin. Snow could begin in western and northern Minnesota late Tuesday afternoon, then expand in coverage to include the rest of Minnesota plus western Wisconsin Tuesday evening and overnight Tuesday night. The snow may end from west to east as we go through Wednesday morning/early afternoon.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening:

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Simulated radar Tuesday and Tuesday evening
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

Gusty winds are expected on Wednesday, and some areas could see blowing snow at times.

Here are probabilities of 2 and 4 inch snow accumulations Tuesday p.m. through Wednesday, from the Duluth NWS office:

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Snow accumulation probabilities Tuesday through Wednesday
National Weather Service

Notice the higher chances of 4 or more inches of snow near Lake Superior, due to water vapor from the relatively warm lake water being pulled into the system.

The Twin Cities metro area could see a couple of inches of fluffy snow Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, and the Wednesday morning commute could be affected.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Thursday and Friday look quiet at this point.

Top weather event lists

As I detailed in my Friday Updraft blog, the Minnesota State Climatology Office has released a list of the Top Five Weather Events of 2021 in Minnesota.

The Duluth NWS office has compiled a list of the Top Northland Weather Events of 2021.

Here’s a look at their list:

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.