Warmup brings snow chances

Milder temps also bring us into the storm track again

Wed snow
Light snow Wednesday morning
College of DuPage weather

A spell of milder air is in store for most of Minnesota. We can expect highs mainly in the 20s and 30s, with teens and 20s hanging onto the North Shore and Arrowhead. This stretch will last for several days.

Temperature swings

We’ve seen a roller coaster of temperatures for this first third of January. In the Twin Cities on Friday, we had a low of minus 17 degrees followed by a Saturday at 29, then back to minus 9 early Monday morning. On Tuesday, we’ll be back to the freezing mark!

A chart of the temperatures shows this well. You can also see that overall we’re running below normal, which is a rare feat. It’s worth noting that February was the only month in 2021 to be colder than normal. January 2022 appears to be nearly guaranteed cooler than the 30-year normal.

Temp Chart
January temperatures plotted so far
National Weather Service

The return of warmer air places us back on the track of more significant storm systems and the jet stream.

Over the next 48 hours we’ll see just a couple of ripples move through our atmosphere, touching off light snow chances Wednesday morning and again late Wednesday night into early Thursday.

Neither of these will be big snow producers — one-half inch for portions of central and northern Minnesota — but they could time out poorly near or just before morning commutes Wednesday and Thursday.

Snow Chances WED
Light snow Wednesday morning
National Weather Service

A big focus this week is the Friday storm system. Somebody, somewhere in our neighborhood is in for a potential significant snowfall.

What looked promising for the Twin Cities the last couple days has potentially shifted for the time being. The precise track is dependent upon where the edge of the colder and milder air sets up.

You can see an animation of this from Thursday evening to Saturday afternoon.

Temp Animation
Animation of Temperatures Thursday-Saturday. Note the boundary of cold and mild.
College of DuPage Weather

That’s why it’s definitely too early to throw around snowfall totals with any confidence just yet. Computer model runs Tuesday and Tuesday night should give us a much better picture of this storm system.

Below is an example of the American model shift from yesterday morning to overnight for Friday snowfall:

Snow Compare FRI
Comparison of the American model overnight (top) and Monday (bottom)
College of DuPage Weather

Stay tuned as changes to both the clipper systems ahead and Friday’s storm are very possible.

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