Be careful out there. Snow will cause slippery roads and reduced visibilities across much of Minnesota and parts of west-central and southwestern Wisconsin into Friday evening.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 6 a.m. Friday to 11 p.m. Friday:
NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model shows a similar precipitation pattern:
Notice that the Twin Cities metro area rides the eastern edge of the snow, so the northeastern part of the metro area can expect less snow than the southwestern half.
How much snow?
Parts of southwestern Minnesota could see 7 to 11 inches of snow by Friday evening, with lower totals to the east.
The area shaded in red has the best odds of 6 or more inches of snow:
By Friday evening, it looks like Twin Cities metro area snow totals could range from 1 to 2 inches in eastern Anoka County and northern Washington County to 4 to 5 inches in Carver, Scott, Hennepin and western Dakota counties.
Warnings, watches and advisories
Winter storm warnings (shaded pink in the graphic below) continue into Friday evening across most of west-central, southwest and south-central Minnesota and to the western edge of the Twin Cities metro area:
The southwestern half of the Twin Cities metro area is in a winter weather advisory until 9 p.m. this Friday, for 3 to 5 inches of snow:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 327 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST... .Snow, occasionally heavy at times, will develop this morning across western Minnesota. The snow will spread southeast through the afternoon. Snowfall rates of an inch per hour are possible along the Minnesota River Valley, west of Mankato, and over the Buffalo Ridge. The snow will end from north to south later this afternoon, and early evening. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through early Friday evening west of a line from Glenwood to Albert Lea. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect east of the warning area to the Mississippi River. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are expected in the warning area with 3 to 5 inches in the advisory area. Amounts will drop off quickly east of the Mississippi River. MNZ059-060-068>070-076>078-085-141800- /O.CON.KMPX.WW.Y.0004.220114T1200Z-220115T0300Z/ Wright-Hennepin-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Steele- Including the cities of Monticello, Minneapolis, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, Hastings, Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, and Owatonna 327 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central and southeast Minnesota. * WHEN...From 6 AM to 9 PM CST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.
Here are details of the winter storm warning in southwestern Minnesota:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 325 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ039-040-056-141730- /O.CON.KFSD.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220115T0600Z/ Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock- Kingsbury-Brookings-Moody- 325 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of east central South Dakota and southwest Minnesota. This includes the tribal lands of the Flandreau Santee Sioux Tribal Nation. * WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories are also in effect until midnight Friday night for portions of northwestern Minnesota:
An updated Updraft blog will be posted by 9:30 a.m. Friday, with a look at this weekend and the coming week. The metro area could see a bit of light snow on Sunday and Tuesday.
You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.
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