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Minnesota’s newest COVID-19 report shows some promising trends. Hospitalizations and intensive care needs are down significantly the past few days. The positive test rate is still high but down off its recent peak.

With data backlogs finally easing, a clearer picture of the path ahead is beginning to emerge, one that offers some hope the state may be through the worst of a surge fueled by COVID’s omicron mutation that began in late summer. 

Tuesday’s report shows more than 46,000 active, confirmed COVID-19 cases in Minnesota. That’s down dramatically from mid-January, when active cases topped 67,000.

Hospitalizations are still high — 1,370 — but trending down. Intensive care demands are at their lowest point since September, with 192 currently needing an ICU bed. 

Wastewater data released Monday by the Metropolitan Council showed COVID-19 rates in the Twin Cities region back to where they were in mid-November and still falling, as of Jan. 26.

Suggests peak may be past

Vigilance is still needed. The numbers are still relatively high. In July, Minnesota appeared to be through the worst of the pandemic — and then the omicron variant hit hard.

How many times can I reuse my N95 mask?

The current wave appears to be past its peak, Mayo Clinic data scientist Curtis Storlie told MPR News on Monday. There will continue to be thousands more positive test results and hospitalizations, he added, so people should still take precautions.

"It means we're half done with this current surge,” Storlie said. “So I think it's important to recognize the omicron surge is not over. There's going to be thousands of infections and hospitalizations on the way back down, too." 

Storlie also noted that while state cases overall have peaked, some areas in rural Minnesota may not yet have reached their peak level of COVID infections.

To address a surge of patients from the latest COVID wave, a third military medical team is poised to start work at a Minnesota hospital this week. 

The 23-person team, including doctors, nurses, pharmacy technicians and commanding officers, arrived at Abbott Northwestern hospital in Minneapolis last week, and will start filling shifts there on Wednesday. 

Carol Koeppel-Olsen, a chief nurse at Abbott, said the staff is currently caring for more than 90 COVID patients.

The team will be at the medical center for 30 days and could be extended another 30 days. An Army medical team previously worked at HCMC, and an Air Force medical team recently wrapped up a support mission in St. Cloud.

Judge upholds Minneapolis COVID vaccine mandate for bars, restaurants

Several Minnesota cities have adopted mask mandates, including 

Hopkins, Golden Valley, Rochester and Minnetonka

The percentage of COVID tests coming back positive is trending at about 25 percent, according to MPR News calculations — five times more than the 5 percent officials find concerning.

Data collected by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows 

 currently with a high level of viral spread.

The state's death toll stands at 11,457 including 46 newly reported deaths. Deaths typically follow a surge in cases and hospitalizations. In past COVID-19 waves, it’s been the last of the key metrics to improve. 

Here's why scientists are on alert

Thanks to vaccinations, Minnesota is better positioned now than during its fall 2020 and spring 2021 spikes: More than 77 percent of state residents age 12 and older have received at least one vaccination shot, with more than 73 percent now completely vaccinated.

Questions on omicron plateauing, breakthroughs, N95s

However, the struggle continues to get first shots into more Minnesotans, especially in central Minnesota. Wide gaps remain in the vaccination rates among regions and counties.

U.S. urges Pfizer to apply for under-5 COVID shots

And more booster questions, answered

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With data backlogs finally easing, a clearer picture of the path ahead is beginning to emerge, one that offers some hope the state may be through the worst of a surge fueled by COVID’s omicron mutation. 

Paul Middlestaedt for MPR News 2021

Active, confirmed COVID-19 cases in Minnesota

David H. Montgomery | MPR News

Graph showing COVID-19 hospitalizations by region

Percent of COVID-19 tests to come back positive

New COVID-19 related deaths reported in Minnesota each day

Graph showing total COVID-19 vaccinations by age

Map of Minnesota COVID-19 eligible vaccination rate

Latest on COVID-19 in MN: Hospital, ICU needs fall; active cases ebb

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