Rain, freezing rain and snow Saturday night; snow tapers by daybreak on Sunday

A low pressure system will continue to spin toward us Saturday evening, bringing a mixture or rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow, which will transition to all snow from west to east later in the evening and overnight as colder air arrives. The snow will end from west to east later Saturday night and very early on Sunday. A few scattered thunderstorms are also possible Saturday evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 4 p.m. Saturday to noon on Sunday:

NOAA’s HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh) model shows a similar precipitation pattern:

The forecast models won’t predict individual thunderstorms, and some areas will receive a changeover to snow faster or slower than the depiction of the models.

Updated warnings and advisories

A winter storm warning extends from portions of southwestern Minnesota to Meeker and McLeod County until midnight. There is also a winter storm warning for Wright County and the west and north portions of the 7-county Twin Cities metro area from 6 p.m. Saturday to 4 a.m. Sunday:

Here are details of the winter storm warning in the west and north metro:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 322 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022 .OVERVIEW... A wintry mix of freezing rain and snow will develop late this afternoon into the evening. Precipitation will likely start off as freezing rain and sleet, and then transition over to snow this evening. A swath of one tenth to one quarter of an inch of ice accumulation is possible from roughly Redwood County through Kanabec, Chisago, & Polk Counties. Additionally, two to four inches of snow is also possible across these area, and a Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the combined impacts of ice and snow. Lesser snow and ice totals to the northwest and southwest of this swath will still cause minor travel impacts, where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect. MNZ060-061-060930- /O.UPG.KMPX.WW.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-220306T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0003.220306T0000Z-220306T1000Z/ Hennepin-Anoka- Including the cities of Minneapolis and Blaine 322 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Hennepin and Anoka Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

Lesser snow totals are expected in the southeast metro and on into west-central Wisconsin, where a winter weather advisory runs from 6 p.m. Saturday to 4 a.m. Sunday:

MNZ062-069-070-WIZ015-023-025-060930- /O.EXB.KMPX.WW.Y.0013.220306T0000Z-220306T1000Z/ Ramsey-Scott-Dakota-Barron-St. Croix-Dunn- Including the cities of St Paul, Shakopee, Hastings, Rice Lake, Hudson, and Menomonie 322 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Wisconsin and east central Minnesota. * WHEN...Until 4 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

An ice storm warning continues until 6 a.m. Sunday in portions of northwestern Wisconsin, including the Hayward area. A winter storm warning covers the remainder of northwestern Wisconsin through Saturday night and for Pine County and Kanabec County of Minnesota until 4 a.m. Sunday. A winter weather advisory includes the Duluth area through Saturday night:

Here are details of the winter weather advisory that includes Duluth:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 339 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022 MNZ036-037-060945- /O.CAN.KDLH.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220306T1200Z/ /O.EXA.KDLH.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-220306T1200Z/ South Aitkin-Carlton and South St. Louis- Including the cities of Aitkin and Duluth 339 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...South Aitkin and Carlton and South St. Louis Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Mille Lacs Band, East Lake area and the Fond du Lac Band. * WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

Here’s the forecast for additional snow Saturday evening and overnight:

Conditions may change and advisories may be updated Saturday night. You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Updated Minnesota road conditions can be found here. Wisconsin road conditions can be found here.

Thunder chance

A few scattered thunderstorms are also possible this Saturday evening. The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk of severe weather (shaded yellow) from far southeastern Minnesota into northern Iowa and southern Wisconsin:

Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible. An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible Saturday evening and overnight in the darker-green shaded area on the map. There is an enhanced risk of severe weather Saturday evening in southern Iowa.

Temperature trends

Sunday highs will be mainly in the 20s to the northwest, with 30s from the metro area eastward and southeastward:

Twin Cities metro area area highs are projected to be around 30 on Monday, followed by 40 Tuesday then lower 30s Wednesday, upper 20s Thursday and upper teens on Friday. Our best chance of snow will be Thursday and Thursday night.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.