Saturday rain, ice and snow; cooler on Sunday
Updated warnings and advisories
When there is a layer of warm air aloft, rain can reach cold surfaces at ground level:
That’s what happened overnight: freezing rain left behind some icy streets, sidewalks and driveways in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Some areas will see the ice melt Saturday afternoon, and some areas will see additional ice accumulation.
An ice storm warning continues until noon today in west-central Wisconsin, and until 6 a.m. Sunday in portions of northwestern and north-central Wisconsin. Here are forecast ice accumulations in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin:
A winter storm warning continues through Saturday night in parts of northeastern Minnesota, including Duluth, for a combination of ice and snow:
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Here are details of that winter storm warning:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 401 AM CST Sat Mar 5 2022 MNZ036>038-WIZ001-002-052215- /O.CON.KDLH.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220306T1200Z/ South Aitkin-Carlton and South St. Louis-Pine-Douglas-Bayfield- Including the cities of Aitkin, Duluth, Pine City, Hinckley, Superior, Washburn, and Bayfield 401 AM CST Sat Mar 5 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of one tenth to three tenths of an inch. * WHERE...In Wisconsin, Douglas and Bayfield Counties. In Minnesota, Pine, South Aitkin and Carlton and South St. Louis Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Red Cliff Band, the Fond du Lac Band and the Mille Lacs Band, East Lake, Lena Lake and, Hinckley areas. * WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 5
Weekend snow totals could reach 4 to 6 inches near Duluth.
The big picture
A low pressure system moves toward us Saturday afternoon, spreading rain and a wintry mix into Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The rain or mix changes to mostly snow as we go through Saturday evening and then the snow ends from west to east late Saturday night and early Sunday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from noon today to 10 a.m. on Sunday:
NOAA’s HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh) model shows a similar precipitation pattern, with a bit slower transition to all snow:
Additional advisories
Winter weather advisories (for a wintry mix that changes to snow) begin at noon and run until midnight tonight in the western and central Minnesota counties that are shaded blue:
The west and north metro (Carver, Hennepin and Anoka County) are in a winter weather advisory from 3 p.m. to midnight…here are those details:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 315 AM CST Sat Mar 5 2022 MNZ060-061-051715- /O.CAN.KMPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-220305T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0015.220305T2100Z-220306T0600Z/ Hennepin-Anoka- Including the cities of Minneapolis and Blaine 315 AM CST Sat Mar 5 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of one tenth to two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Hennepin and Anoka Counties. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to midnight CST tonight. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.
Some 2 to 4 inch snow totals are possible by Sunday morning from southwestern Minnesota into central Minnesota. The northwestern side of the Twin Cities metro area could see an inch or two of snow by Sunday morning, with less than an inch expected in the southeastern side of the metro area.
A quicker changeover to all snow would increase snowfall totals in Minnesota and western Wisconsin. You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.
Updated Minnesota road conditions can be found here. Wisconsin road conditions can be found here.
Thunder chance
A few scattered thunderstorms are also possible this Saturday afternoon/early evening. The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk of severe weather (shaded yellow) from far southeastern Minnesota into Iowa and southern Wisconsin:
Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible. An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible today and tonight in the darker-green shaded area on the map.
Temperature trends
Saturday highs will range from 20s in northwestern Minnesota to 50s in the far southeast. Parts of the Twin Cities metro area could top 40 degrees.
Sunday highs will be mainly in the 20s to the northwest, with 30s from the metro area eastward and southeastward:
Twin Cities metro area area highs are projected to be around 30 on Monday, followed by 40 Tuesday then lower 30s Wednesday, upper 20s Thursday and upper teens on Friday.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.