Milder Monday; wintry mess possible late Tuesday into Thursday
Update on river levels
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The weekend sunshine was nice, but we had chilly temps. Our official weekend highs at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport were 33 degrees Saturday afternoon and 32 degrees Sunday afternoon. That’s chilly; our average Twin Cities high temp is 47 degrees this time of year.
Temperature trends
Monday highs will reach the 40s in southern and far western Minnesota, with mainly 30s elsewhere:
A few spots in the metro area could reach the lower 40s. There will be some 20s near Lake Superior.
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Wind gusts will be highest in western Minnesota Monday afternoon:
Forecast wind gusts are in knots, with 20 knots equal to 23 mph.
Back to temperatures, Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the lower 40s on Tuesday, then around 40 Wednesday followed by mid 30s Thursday and lower 40s Friday.
Wintery mess Tuesday PM into Thursday
A low pressure system will move out of the Rockies and toward the upper Midwest Tuesday and Wednesday. It’ll spread precipitation across much of Minnesota and Wisconsin from Tuesday afternoon into Thursday.
NOAA’s Global Forecast System (GFS) model shows the potential precipitation pattern from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon:
The Twin Cities metro area will have a chance of rain showers Tuesday afternoon. Periods of rain are likely in the metro area Tuesday night and Wednesday, possibly mixed with some snow and sleet at times. There’s also a thunderstorm chance Tuesday night in the metro area and southern Minnesota. A wintry mix in the metro area Wednesday evening will probably change over to all snow later Wednesday night, with periods of snow likely on Thursday.
Forecast models show a range of metro area snow amounts Wednesday night into Thursday, but it looks like the north metro has the best chance of seeing two inches or more of snow from this wintry storm. The storm track could change, which would affect the timing of the changeover from rain to snow and the final snow amounts. Check forecast updates this week.
The heaviest snow Wednesday into Thursday could be from central Minnesota to just north of the metro area and on into northeastern Minnesota and parts of northwestern Wisconsin.
The Duluth NWS has posted a map of the areas that have the best chance of heavier snow and ice from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon:
There will be some additional snow Wednesday night into Thursday in parts of northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin.
I should mention that one forecast model shows several inches of snow Tuesday evening into Wednesday in parts of northwestern Minnesota.
Here’s a chart of various precipitation types and how they develop:
You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.
