Warm Saturday, with scattered showers & t-storms; cooler Sunday

Our first 70s of 2022 are forecast for central and southern Minnesota plus western Wisconsin Saturday afternoon:

Far northern Minnesota will have Saturday highs in the 60s and upper 50s.

Many spots in the southern half of Minnesota will see summery dew points in the lower 60s Saturday afternoon:

Saturday will be windy in western Minnesota and breezy elsewhere.

A wind advisory covers west-central and southwestern Minnesota on Saturday:

Here are details of the wind advisory in southwestern Minnesota:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 324 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022 MNZ064-073-074-082-091-230430- /O.CON.KMPX.WI.Y.0011.220423T1400Z-220424T0000Z/ Yellow Medicine-Redwood-Brown-Watonwan-Martin- Including the cities of Granite Falls, Redwood Falls, New Ulm, St James, and Fairmont 324 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Martin, Watonwan, Brown, Yellow Medicine and Redwood Counties. * WHEN...From 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Thunderstorm chances Saturday and Saturday evening

Far northern Minnesota is expected to see the most showers and embedded thunderstorms Friday evening and overnight, with scattered activity possible elsewhere in Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Many areas will see periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) model shows the potential precipitation pattern from noon Saturday to noon on Sunday:

NOAA’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows a similar rain pattern, with slightly different timing:

Keep in mind that computer models cannot be expected to forecast individual thunderstorms. Thunderstorm coverage will depend on the destabilization that occurs in any given area.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk (shaded yellow) of severe weather Saturday and Saturday night in Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible:

The best chance of strong to severe thunderstorms in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin may hold off until late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. Check forecast updates on Saturday.

In addition to possible severe weather, a flood watch is in effect for much of northwestern Minnesota through Saturday, due to rainfall and snowmelt:

Here are details of the flood watch:

Flood Watch National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1127 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022 .Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to continue through the next 36 hours across most of the area. Heavy rainfall may combine with antecedent frost depth, soil moisture, and ongoing snow melt to create overland flooding. Flash flooding may also occur where the heaviest rainfall rates persist for extended periods of time. This will also cause additional rises in river levels as water drains into creeks and rivers. MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022-023-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030- 038-054-240000- /O.NEW.KFGF.FA.A.0001.220422T1627Z-220424T0000Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ West Polk-Norman-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Towner-Cavalier- Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs- Steele-Traill-Barnes-Western Walsh- Including the cities of Lancaster, Minnewaukan, Red Lake, Baudette, McIntosh, Grygla, Tolna, Erskine, Red Lake Falls, Newfolden, Long Lost Lake, Maddock, Waubun, Pembina, Grand Forks, Ada, Stephen, Finley, Hope, Lake Itasca, Lakota, Walhalla, Neche, Hillsboro, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Thief River Falls, Edinburg, Leeds, Fosston, Grafton, Ebro, East Grand Forks, Lankin, Alida, Bagley, Upper Rice Lake, St. Thomas, Greenbush, Adams, Roseau, Drayton, Clearbrook, Devils Lake, Warroad, Twin Valley, Ponemah, Roy Lake, Hatton, Valley City, Cavalier, Cando, Fort Totten, Bemidji, Portland, Hallock, Redby, Fertile, New Rockford, Cooperstown, Argyle, Crookston, Langdon, Aneta, Lower Rice Lake, Mayville, Karlstad, Mcville, Halstad, Park River, Middle River, and Warren 1127 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt is possible. * WHERE...Portions of Minnesota and North Dakota, including the following areas, in Minnesota, East Marshall, East Polk, Kittson, Lake Of The Woods, Mahnomen, Norman, North Beltrami, North Clearwater, Pennington, Red Lake, Roseau, South Beltrami, South Clearwater, West Marshall and West Polk. In North Dakota, Barnes, Benson, Cavalier, Eastern Walsh, Eddy, Grand Forks, Griggs, Nelson, Pembina, Ramsey, Steele, Towner, Traill and Western Walsh. * WHEN...Through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Northern Minnesota could also see some showers at times on Sunday.

Temperature trends

High temperatures retreat into the 40s and lower 50s on Sunday:

The Twin Cities metro area may start out in the upper 50s around 1 a.m. Sunday, followed by falling temps with a high in the lower 50s during the daylight hours.

We start the week cool, the temps gradually recover. Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be in the lower 40s on Monday, followed by mid 40s Tuesday and upper 40s Wednesday, then mid 50s Thursday and upper 50s on Friday. The start of the week looks dry in the metro area, then we’ll have a shower chance Wednesday night and Thursday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.