Periods of rain Saturday into Sunday AM; milder temps return midweek

I know, it’s the weekend and many people would like to see dry weather.

Unfortunately, periods of rain will continue over much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. There could be a few thunderstorms embedded in the rain pattern at times. Some 1 to 2 inch rainfall totals are possible this weekend. Gusty winds are expected in most areas.

By Sunday afternoon, the best chance of rain may slide off into northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 5 a.m. Sunday to 11 p.m. on Sunday:

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) model shows a similar Sunday/Sunday evening rain pattern, but it pulls the rain out of southern Minnesota more quickly :

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Flood warnings and watches

Flood warnings continue along the Red River and along some smaller rivers in northwestern Minnesota. Parts of northwestern Minnesota could see 2 or more inches of rain over the next 36 hours. A flood watch (dark green) continues in much of northwestern Minnesota until Sunday morning:

Here are details of the flood watch:

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 416 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030- 038-039-054-011200- /O.CON.KFGF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-220501T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods- West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake- East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Towner-Cavalier- Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks- Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Western Walsh- Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada, Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, Detroit Lakes, Wolf Lake, Cando, Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas, Fort Totten, Maddock, Leeds, Minnewaukan, Devils Lake, Grafton, Park River, New Rockford, Lakota, Mcville, Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, Hatton, Portland, Valley City, Fargo, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin 416 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... The Flood Watch continues for * Portions of Minnesota and North Dakota, including the following areas, in Minnesota, Clay, East Becker, East Marshall, East Polk, Hubbard, Kittson, Lake Of The Woods, Mahnomen, Norman, North Beltrami, North Clearwater, Pennington, Red Lake, Roseau, South Beltrami, South Clearwater, West Becker, West Marshall, and West Polk. In North Dakota, Barnes, Benson, Cass, Cavalier, Eastern Walsh, Eddy, Grand Forks, Griggs, Nelson, Pembina, Ramsey, Steele, Towner, Traill, and Western Walsh. * Through Sunday morning * WHEN...From Friday morning through Sunday morning. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Area creeks and streams are running high and could flood with more heavy rain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

The NWS has these flood safety tips:

A flood watch starts Saturday afternoon and runs until Sunday evening along and near the North Shore of Lake Superior:

Here are details of that flood watch:

Flood Watch National Weather Service Duluth MN 231 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 .Heavy rain on top of the existing snowpack may increase the rate of snowmelt. The resultant runoff may cause water levels in area rivers to increase and flooding is possible. MNZ020-021-302215- /O.NEW.KDLH.FA.A.0002.220430T2100Z-220502T0500Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Southern Lake-Southern Cook- Including the cities of Two Harbors, Silver Bay, and Grand Marais 231 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt is possible. * WHERE...A portion of northeast Minnesota, including the following areas, Southern Cook and Southern Lake. * WHEN...From this afternoon through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected today into Sunday, with most of the rain falling this afternoon into tonight. A continued melting snowpack will also contribute to the flooding threat. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

There is also a flood watch starting Saturday night for the Mississippi River at Aitkin, Minnesota:

Flood Watch National Weather Service Duluth MN 440 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 ...The National Weather Service in Duluth MN has issued a Flood Watch for the following rivers in Minnesota... Mississippi River At Aitkin affecting South Aitkin and Crow Wing zones. For the Mississippi at Aitkin...flooding is possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you are in the watch area, remain alert to possible flooding. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/duluth. && MNZ034-036-301800- /O.NEW.KDLH.FL.A.0003.220501T0600Z-000000T0000Z/ /ATKM5.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 440 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE... * WHAT...Flooding is possible. * WHERE...Mississippi River At Aitkin. * WHEN...From late tonight until further notice. * IMPACTS...At 13.0 feet, The boat ramp at Aitkin city park floods. A few driveways become covered with water in the Cedarbrook area. Minor flooding of farmland occurs in the Cedarbrook community. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 3:30 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 12.9 feet. - Forecast...Flood stage may be reached just after midnight. - Flood stage is 13.0 feet. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

NOAA’s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service site shows river gauges across our region. You can click on any gauge at that site to get recent and current river levels plus the forecast levels over the next few days.

Temperature trends

Much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have Saturday highs in the 50s. There will be some 40s in the northern third of Minnesota.

Sunday highs will be mainly in the 40s, with some spots in southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin topping 50:

Some spots in the Twin Cities will touch 50 degrees Sunday afternoon.

Sunday afternoon wind gusts could be in the 25 to 30 mph range in portions of western and south-central Minnesota:

Forecast gusts are in knots, with 20 knots equal to 23 mph.

Back to temperatures, Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the lower 50s Monday, followed by mid 50s Tuesday, around 60 Wednesday, then lower 60s Thursday and Friday.

Weather nugget

The official Twin Cities snowfall total at MSP airport is just 1.6 inches this April. The Twin Cities snowfall total for the 2021-2022 snow season sits at 50.2 inches. That’s very close to our (30-year) Twin Cities average snow season total of 51.2 inches.