Weekend weather: Summery! Some thunderstorms at times, but many dry hours
The severe weather outlook has been updated
Astronomical summer begins on June 21 this year. Many meteorologists use June 1 as the start of summer because June, July and August are the three warmest months of the year in the northern hemisphere. Summer won’t even wait until June 1 this year; central and southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have very summery weather this Memorial Day weekend.
Weekend highs and dew points
Our average Twin Cities high temperature is 73 degrees on May 28. Twin Cities metro area temps are forecast to reach the mid 80s this Saturday. High temps will be in the 80s in roughly the southern half of Minnesota Saturday afternoon, with mainly 70s in northwestern Minnesota and western Wisconsin:
Northeastern Minnesota will have a mix of 60s and upper 50s.
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Saturday afternoon dew points will rise into the 50s in much of Minnesota, with sticky lower 60s in the southwest:
Highs in the 80s are expected Sunday in central and southern Minnesota plus most of western Wisconsin, with 70s in northwestern Minnesota and some 60s in northeastern Minnesota:
Sunday afternoon dew points will be in the sticky 60s in northwestern, central and southern Minnesota plus western Wisconsin:
I say “sticky” when dew points are in the 60s, but many people like the summery feel of those dew points in the 60s with temps in the 80s.
Memorial Day highs reach the 80s in many areas. Some spots in the Twin Cities metro area and to the south and east could top 90 degrees:
Northwestern Minnesota and areas near Lake Superior will see mainly 70s on Memorial Day.
Rain/thunderstorm chances
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread across parts of Minnesota and western Wisconsin Friday night into Saturday morning. Northeastern Minnesota could see a few lingering showers and an isolated thunderstorm Saturday afternoon. It looks like a dry Saturday afternoon and evening in many areas, including the Twin Cities.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 6 p.m. Friday to 11 p.m. on Saturday:
NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) model shows a similar rain pattern, with a more extensive batch of showers and thunderstorms developing over eastern sections of South Dakota and North Dakota Saturday evening:
Some of those thunderstorms could spread across parts of Minnesota and western Wisconsin late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
Areas of thunderstorms are then expected to develop over western Minnesota Sunday afternoon, and spread into eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin Sunday evening and overnight Sunday night.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible anytime on Memorial Day.
Severe weather outlooks
The Saturday/Saturday night severe weather outlook from the NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a marginal risk (shaded darker green) of severe weather in portions of Minnesota and western Wisconsin:
Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible. I should mention that Saturday night in NWS lingo ends at 7 a.m. Sunday. Our isolated severe weather chance in the Twin Cities would be late Saturday night.
Severe weather chances are higher Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows an enhanced risk of severe weather for that period in parts of southwestern and central Minnesota, with a slight risk of severe weather (shaded yellow) in a large portion of Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin:
Enhanced risk means that numerous severe thunderstorms are possible, slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible:
The Twin Cities metro area could see some strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday evening and overnight Sunday night.
Scattered severe thunderstorms will also be possible Monday and Monday evening in Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.