Periods of strong to severe t-storms are possible Sunday evening into Monday evening

Thunderstorms moved through parts of Minnesota and western Wisconsin Sunday morning. For the first part of Sunday afternoon, the best chance of thunderstorms is expected to be in north-central and northeastern Minnesota and parts of far northwestern Wisconsin. There could be a few scattered thunderstorms elsewhere.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in western Minnesota during the mid and late afternoon hours, then spread eastward Sunday evening and overnight Sunday night.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Sunday/Sunday night severe weather outlook

The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows and enhanced risk (shaded light-brown or beige) of severe weather Sunday afternoon through the overnight hours of Sunday night from southwestern Minnesota into central Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area:

Enhanced risk means that numerous severe thunderstorms are possible:

The yellow-shaded area on the map could see scattered severe thunderstorms.

In the Twin Cities metro area, our thunderstorm chances and the potential for severe weather will increase during the evening hours, then the potential for some rounds of strong to severe t-storms will remain with us overnight. Check forecast updates.

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Late afternoon update

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a severe thunderstorm watch valid until 10 p.m. this Sunday for much of northwestern Minnesota plus eastern North Dakota:

Here are details of the watch:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 287 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwestern Minnesota Eastern North Dakota * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along a roughly north-south band near the North Dakota-Minnesota border this afternoon, while additional storms could form later this afternoon into northeastern North Dakota. The storm environment will support a mix of multicell clusters and some supercells, with the primary threats of occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts. A tornado or two may occur with any mature supercells interacting with the surface warm front. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Roseau MN to 60 miles south of Detroit Lakes MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 21025.

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Memorial Day severe weather outlook

After a few lingering showers and thunderstorms Monday morning, some strong to severe thunderstorms could develop Monday afternoon and Monday evening. The Storm Prediction Center has much of Minnesota in an enhanced risk of severe weather Monday and Monday night:

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Sunday afternoon update to Monday severe weather outlook

The Storm Prediction Center has upped the Monday/Monday night severe weather risk to moderate in parts of western Minnesota. That is the second-highest risk category issued by the SPC.

Here’s the Twin Cities NWS note on the Monday/Monday night severe weather risk:

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Make sure that you have a way to receive warnings this Memorial Day weekend.

Flood watch parts of northern Minnesota

Portions of northern Minnesota (shaded darker green) are in a flood watch for the next few days:

Here are details of the flood watch:

Flood Watch National Weather Service Duluth MN 521 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022 MNZ010-011-018-025-026-033>035-292230- /O.NEW.KDLH.FA.A.0005.220529T1021Z-220531T1700Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Koochiching-North St. Louis-North Itasca-North Cass-South Itasca- South Cass-Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin- Including the cities of Pine River, International Falls, Ely, Brainerd, Hill City, Grand Rapids, Walker, and Bigfork 521 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of east central Minnesota, north central Minnesota and northeast Minnesota, including the following areas, in east central Minnesota, Crow Wing and Northern Aitkin. In north central Minnesota, Koochiching, North Cass, North Itasca, South Cass and South Itasca. In northeast Minnesota, North St. Louis. * WHEN...Through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Several rounds of thunderstorms will pass through north central Minnesota today through Tuesday morning. Since water bodies are already running high, relatively low rainfall amounts may cause flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Flood warnings, shaded light green from International Falls toward Ely in the map above, continue through much of the Rainy River Basin. Here are details of the historic flooding that is taking place in parts of the Rainy River Basin:

Much more info on that flooding can be found here.

Temperature trends

Sunday highs will be in the 80s in much of central and southern Minnesota plus most of western Wisconsin, with 70s in northwestern Minnesota and some 60s in northeastern Minnesota. Dew points will be in the sticky 60s in much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Memorial Day highs reach the 80s in many areas. Some spots in the Twin Cities metro area and south-central MN could top 90 degrees. Northwestern Minnesota and areas near Lake Superior will see mainly 70s on Memorial Day:

Dew points will be in the sticky 60s in most areas:

Back to high temps, Twin Cities metro area highs will retreat to the lower 70s Tuesday, then highs will be around 70 Wednesday, followed by lower 70s Thursday and mid 70s on Friday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.