Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday into early Monday

It’ll be a summery Sunday afternoon in much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Late morning shower and thunderstorm activity has been mainly in northwestern and central Minnesota. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this Sunday afternoon and evening in Minnesota and western Wisconsin, but we’ll have many dry hours too.

An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible this afternoon and evening, but a more extensive area of strong to severe thunderstorms could move into western Minnesota after midnight Sunday night and then spread across the remainder of Minnesota and into western Wisconsin in the late overnight hours and Monday morning.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a marginal risk of severe weather (darker green) for much of our region Sunday afternoon into early Monday, with a slight risk (yellow) in parts of northwestern and west-central Minnesota:

Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible. The explanation in the graphic of storm timing and the potential severe weather hazards is from the NWS Twin Cities office.

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Midday update

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Check forecast updates.

Temperature trends

Many spots in the southern half of Minnesota will have Sunday highs in the 80s, with mainly 70s elsewhere. There will be some 60s near Lake Superior.

Monday highs range from lower 90s in far southwestern Minnesota to 60s near Lake Superior.:

Monday afternoon dew points will be in the sticky 60s in much of southern, central and northwestern Minnesota, with some steamy 70s in the far southwest:

Back to temperatures, Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the mid 90s on Tuesday, followed by 80 Wednesday, lower 80s Thursday and mid 80s Friday.

Rainy River Basin flooding update

It was good to see a stretch of dry days this past week, which kept the flooding in the Rainy River Basin of far northern Minnesota from worsening.

Flood warnings continue in the portions of the Rainy River Basin that are shaded green:

Here is the most recent flooding update for that area:

Flood Warning National Weather Service Duluth MN 515 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 MNC071-137-162200- /O.EXT.KDLH.FA.W.0012.000000T0000Z-220616T2200Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Koochiching MN-St. Louis MN- 515 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 ...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE... * WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues. Namakan and Rainy Lake have both surpassed levels set during the 2014 peak levels with Rainy Lake now above the 1950 record peak as well. * WHERE...Portions of north central Minnesota and northeast Minnesota, including the following counties, in north central Minnesota, Koochiching. In northeast Minnesota, St. Louis. * WHEN...Until further notice. * IMPACTS...Flooding of lakes, rivers, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations is occurring. Several structures are flooded and sand bagging operations are continuing. Low-water crossings are inundated with water and may not be passable. Expect many areas of slow moving or standing water. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 506 PM CDT, Friday, emergency management continued to reported flooding in the warned area. - The dry weather over the past week has meant declining flows in the smaller streams and reduced inflows to the lakes. The 4-day forecast includes chances of showers and thunderstorm with one-tenth up to three-tenths of an inch of rain expected across the basin. Even with this rainfall, the expectation is that the recent decreases of inflow will continue. There is some rain in the forecast beyond four days, but amounts remain uncertain. Flows across most of the watershed are expected to remain very high for the week ahead. Namakan and Kabetogama Lakes were at 1122.2 feet as of June 10, which is 20 inches above the peak level set in 2014 and 7.5 inches below the 1916 peak. The level of Namakan Lake is expected to fall by 9 to 12 inches between June 10 and June 17. Rainy Lake was at 1113.2 feet as of June 10 which is 22 inches above the 2014 flooding peak and 3 inches above the previous record peak of 1950. The level of Rainy Lake is expected to remain stable with slight fluctuations up or down depending on rainfall by six-tenths of an inch between June 10 and June 17. Rainy Lake should reach its peak by around June 17 unless more rainfall occurs than currently expected. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... International Falls, Kabetogama, Crane Lake, Kabetogama Lake, Voyageurs National Park, Rainy Lake - East, Rainy Lake - West, northwestern Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness, Ranier, Ray, Island View, Ericksburg, Johnson Lake, and Sand Point Lake. - For more information about flood safety visit, https://weather.gov/safety/flood . For more information about the Rainy Lake Basin flooding visit, https://weather.gov/dlh/RainyRiverBasin . PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Once levels have peaked, it will take a matter of weeks to a month for levels to decline to near normal summer levels. Additional rainfall will prolong the time it takes for levels to recede.

Here’s a summary of flooding conditions in the Rainy River Basin:

The NWS Rainy River Basin page has additional information on the flooding.

Weather nugget

So far this June, our Twin Cities average temp (that’s the average of all the daily high temps and low temps) is running six-tenths of a degree cooler than normal. Last June, our Twin Cities average temp was 15 degrees above normal during the first 11 days of the month.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.