Warmer Sunday and on the Fourth of July; update on rain chances

We’ll have many more dry hours than rainy hours on Sunday and the Fourth of July, but many areas will see some rain at times.

Rain opportunities

Most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have dry weather this Saturday evening, but an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could move through parts of southwestern Minnesota and far northern Minnesota late Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Another wave of showers and thunderstorms may move into northwestern Minnesota early Sunday afternoon, then spread across far northern Minnesota later Sunday afternoon and evening. A few very scattered showers and thunderstorms could also pop up elsewhere in Minnesota and western Wisconsin Sunday afternoon and evening.

There’s yet another wave of showers and thunderstorms that’s expected to spread across much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin late Sunday night into Monday morning. Then scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) forecast model shows the potential rain pattern from noon on Sunday to noon on Monday:

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Temps and dew points

Sunday highs will reach the 80s in many areas, with mainly 70s in north-central and northeastern Minnesota:

There could be a few upper 60s up along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Sunday afternoon dew points will be in the sticky 60s in much of central and southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

It will be a warm Fourth of July in some. Monday highs will be in the 80s in most of central and southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

There will be some lower 90s in southwestern Minnesota and some 60s near Lake Superior.

Monday afternoon dew points will be in the steamy 70s in central and southern Minnesota:

The rest of the week

Twin Cities high temperatures are projected to reach the lower 80s on Tuesday, followed by mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday and upper 80s on Friday.

Rainy River Basin flooding update

Flood warnings continue in portions of the Rainy River Basin of far northern Minnesota:

Here’s the most recent flooding update for that area:

Flood Statement National Weather Service Duluth MN 1030 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 MNC071-137-050500- /O.CON.KDLH.FA.W.0012.000000T0000Z-220705T0500Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Koochiching MN-St. Louis MN- 1030 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 ...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE... * WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues. * WHERE...Shoreline areas of Namakan, Kabetogama, and Rainy lakes in northern Minnesota, as well as lower reaches of streams and rivers which empty into those lakes. * WHEN...Until further notice. * IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Several structures are flooded and some sand bagging operations are continuing. Numerous roads remain closed due to flooding. Low-water crossings are inundated with water and may not be passable. Expect many areas of slow moving or standing water. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 1025 AM CDT, Saturday, emergency management reported ongoing extensive flooding across the warned area. - Namakan and Kabetogama lakes were at 1119.0 feet as of the morning of July 2, which is 18 inches, or 1.5 feet, below the peak level reached in 2014. The level of Namakan and Kabetogama lakes is expected to fall by 8 to 11 inches by July 6, at which time the level would be within the International Joint Commission regulated levels. Namakan and Kabetogama lakes level has fallen 43 inches, or 3.6 feet, since the crest on May 31. Rainy Lake was at 1111.9 feet as of the morning of July 2, which is 6.6 inches above the 2014 peak and 12.5 inches below the previous record set in 1950. The level of Rainy Lake is expected to fall by 13 to 16 inches by July 8. Rainy Lake Lake levels have fallen 16 inches since the crest on June 15. Widespread heavy rainfall over these basins would slow the rate of recession, but will not stop the recessions. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... International Falls, Kabetogama, Crane Lake, Kabetogama Lake, Voyageurs National Park, Rainy Lake East, Rainy Lake West, northwestern Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness, Ranier, Ray, Island View, Ericksburg, Johnson Lake, and Sand Point Lake. - For more information about flood safety visit, https://weather.gov/safety/flood . For more information about the Rainy Lake Basin flooding visit, https://weather.gov/dlh/RainyRiverBasin . PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become unstable and unsafe.

Here’s a summary of flooding conditions in the Rainy River Basin:

The NWS Rainy River Basin page has additional information on the flooding.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.