Fireworks time should be storm-free; scattered showers and storms the next few days

The long line of thunderstorms that raced northeastward across Minnesota Monday morning remained sub-severe, fortunately. And they brought some welcome rain to the parched Twin Cities area. My rain gauge measured 0.30 inches. That’s not a whole lot of rain, but was more than a third of what it measured for the entire month of June.

Muggy

The mugginess factor is certainly in place. The dew point in the Twin Cities has risen to at least 69 during the afternoon.

Additional storms into Monday evening?

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The atmosphere has been recovering from the stabilizing effect of the morning storms and rain. Afternoon heating and all that atmospheric moisture should allow isolated showers and maybe thunderstorms to pop up as the afternoon ends. A marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe weather (dark green) continues into Monday evening in a northwest-to-southeast band across the state. The best chances for isolated severe weather are in the northwest and southeast corners.  

Severe weather outlook for the rest of Monday and Monday night
Severe weather outlook for the rest of Monday and Monday night
NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Looking good for fireworks

Thunderstorms that do continue into Monday evening are likely to weaken and dissipate before fireworks time.

Unsettled week

Much of the upcoming week will bring typical July weather:  heat and humidity, along with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. The best chance of showers and storms should be through about Thursday over mainly southern parts of Minnesota.

The risk of severe weather will shift southward. The slight (level 2 of 5) risk of severe storms on Tuesday and Tuesday night will stretch from Montana to Maryland and Virginia. And an enhanced (level 3) risk that includes the southwest corner of Minnesota has been added. Strong thunderstorms are likely to develop in southwestern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon and expand as they spread eastward across southern counties of the state. Some storms are likely to become severe.

Updated severe weather outlook for Tuesday
Updated severe weather outlook for Tuesday and Tuesday night
NOAA Storm Prediction Center

More storms for Wednesday

For Wednesday and Wednesday night, the slight risk is posted from Nebraska and just about all of Iowa to North Carolina.

Severe weather risk for Wednesday-Wednesday night
Severe weather risk for Wednesday-Wednesday night
NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Typical July heat

Statewide high temperatures should be mainly in the seasonable 70s north and 80s farther south for much of the upcoming week. The southwest could heat into the low 90s some days.

Warmer for the weekend and next week

Temperatures will turn warmer toward the weekend and continue into next week. The 6-10 day temperature outlook for July 9-13 (Saturday through Wednesday next week) calls for warmer than normal temperatures across the whole middle of the country. And it looks especially toasty for Oklahoma and Texas.

6-10 day temperature outlook for July 9-13
6-10 day temperature outlook for July 9-13
NOAA Weather Prediction Center