Areas of fog Sunday AM; Winter storm update for Monday-Tuesday

Updated at 10 a.m.

Happy New Year!

Some areas are starting New Year’s Day with fog. Light winds allowed fog to form in many locations overnight. A dense fog advisory continues until noon today across much of northwestern Minnesota:

Some spots could see freezing fog and icy patches on roads this morning.

Areas of freezing drizzle have prompted the National Weather Service to issue a winter weather advisory for northeastern Minnesota through Sunday morning:

Minnesota road conditions can be found here. 

You can find updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network.

After the morning fog, many areas will have lingering clouds with a few peeks of sun at times. New Year’s Day highs will be mainly in the 20s in northern and central Minnesota, with lower 30s in southern Minnesota, the Twin Cities metro area, and western Wisconsin.

Winter storm update

Computer models show a low-pressure system moving out of Colorado on Monday and then tracking northeastward through Tuesday, spreading precipitation over much of the upper Midwest. There will be mainly snow in some areas, with a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain in other areas.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from Monday morning into Tuesday evening:

It looks like west-central into southwestern Minnesota will see mainly snow, with a wintry mix also possible. Rain and freezing rain look most likely in south-central and southeastern Minnesota before transitioning to all snow.

The highest snow totals from Monday through Tuesday are most likely to be from southwestern Minnesota into central Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin:

The highest chances of icing from freezing rain will be in southern Minnesota:

Winter storm watches start on Monday

The NWS has issued a winter storm watch with various Monday start times across much of central and southern Minnesota and portions of Wisconsin:

Here are some start times for the winter storm watch, which will run through Tuesday:

6 a.m. Monday Winter storm watch begins in southwestern Minnesota.

3 p.m. Monday Winter storm watch begins in Willmar, Mankato, Albert Lea and in the south and southwestern part of the Twin Cities metro area.

9 p.m. Monday Winter storm watch begins in the remainder of the metro area and up toward St. Cloud and also in west-central Wisconsin.

A winter storm watch starts at midnight Monday night and continues through Tuesday evening from Brainerd and Hinckley to Duluth and into northwestern Wisconsin:

Here are details of the southwestern Minnesota portion of the winter storm watch:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 312 AM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 IAZ001-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-097-098-SDZ038>040-050-052>070- 011800- /O.CON.KFSD.WS.A.0005.230102T1200Z-230104T0000Z/ Lyon-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Pipestone-Rock-Beadle- Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody- Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas- Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay- 312 AM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 12 inches, locally higher, and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Iowa, southwest Minnesota and central, east central, south central and southeast South Dakota. * WHEN...From Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Power may be impacted in some locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind gust forecast have trended upward. Should this trend continue, blizzard or near-blizzard conditions may be possible. Small fluctuations in storm track are expected over the next 24 hours which will impact precipitation type and amount forecast.

Here are details of the portion of the watch that includes Mankato and Albert Lea, plus the south and southwestern part of the Twin Cities metro area:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 310 AM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 MNZ068>070-076>078-083>085-091>093-011715- /O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0007.230102T2100Z-230104T0000Z/ Carver-Scott-Dakota-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Blue Earth-Waseca- Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn- Including the cities of Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, Hastings, Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, Mankato, Waseca, Owatonna, Fairmont, Blue Earth, and Albert Lea 310 AM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of east central, south central and southeast Minnesota. * WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

Here are details of the watch that includes the remainder of the metro area plus St. Cloud and parts of west-central Wisconsin:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 310 AM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 MNZ043>045-049>053-059>063-WIZ014>016-023>026-011715- /O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0007.230103T0300Z-230104T0600Z/ Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stearns-Benton-Sherburne-Isanti- Chisago-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Polk-Barron-Rusk- St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin- Including the cities of Little Falls, Princeton, Mora, St Cloud, Sauk Rapids, Elk River, Cambridge, Center City, Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Osceola, Rice Lake, Ladysmith, Hudson, River Falls, Menomonie, and Durand 310 AM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of central and east central Minnesota and northwest and west central Wisconsin. * WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

Here are details of the winter storm watch that includes Brainerd and Hinckley:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 330 AM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 MNZ034-036-038-012130- /O.CON.KDLH.WS.A.0015.230103T0600Z-230104T0600Z/ Crow Wing-South Aitkin-Pine- Including the cities of Brainerd, Aitkin, Pine City, and Hinckley 330 AM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. * WHERE...Crow Wing, South Aitkin and Pine Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Mille Lacs Band, East Lake, Hinckley and, Lena Lake areas. * WHEN...From late Monday night through Tuesday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

Check forecast updates.

You can get forecast details for any spot in the United States by clicking on the map that’s displayed here.

Top five Minnesota weather events of 2022

The Minnesota State Climatology Office has compiled a list of the Top Five Weather Events of 2022 in Minnesota. According to the Climatology Office:

Votes were cast from various weather enthusiasts including the National Weather Service, the University of Minnesota, State agencies and Facebook followers.

I was among the Minnesota meteorologists who voted this year.

The final vote tally has been completed and here are the results as posted by the Climatology Office, along with their narrative for each event and links to more info:

#1 The Drought of 2022

For the second year in a row, significant drought conditions developed in Minnesota during 2022, this time in response to quick-hitting and steep precipitation deficits. Unlike the previous year's drought, which hit northern Minnesota the hardest and peaked during late summer, this one originated in southern Minnesota and escalated during the fall. As of early November 2022, the 2021 drought was the larger and "worse" of the two episodes in all categories.

#2 Flooding in the Northland

The exceedingly wet spring set the stage for historic flooding in the far north. International Falls through June 19 had 18.53 inches, which is almost two times the 1991-2020 normal of 9.47 inches. Rainy Lake set a new record high level, breaking the old level from 1950 and Lake of the Woods feel just short if the record level set in 1950. With 100 years of record, the Pigeon River at Grand Portage set a record flow or “discharge” in the spring as well.

#3 (tie vote) May-hem: A Stormy and Damaging May 2022

There were six separate weather episodes in May 2022. Through June 3 there were more severe thunderstorm warnings though June 3, than any year back to when searchable records began in 1986. One of the most extreme thunderstorm wind events seen in years on Thursday, May 12, 2022. The highest wind gusts recorded in Minnesota was 94mph at Madison in Lac Qui Parle County and Verndale in Wadena County. There were at least nine tornadoes. High winds damaged homes, garages, silos, grain bins and numerous trees. One man was killed when a large grain bin fell on his vehicle.

#3 (tie vote) Blizzard, Ice, Slush Storm, and Rain, December 13-17, 2022

A powerful winter storm lasting multiple days brought wind, rain, heavy mixed precipitation, and intense wet snow to Minnesota from Tuesday December 13th, lasting into Saturday December 17th, 2022. Across the state, but especially in northern Minnesota, the storm damaged countless trees, blocked roads, closed snowmobile trails, and knocked out power to tens of thousands of customers. Its massive geographic footprint and duration meant that virtually all of the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin received significant snowfall accumulations, with Winter Storm and even Blizzard Warnings covering the entire 300,000 square-mile area at times.

#5 Snow & Holiday Blizzard

An enormous, powerful, and deadly winter storm overtook much of Minnesota and the surrounding region after an abundant and powdery snowfall ending on Thursday December 22, 2022, set the stage for a long-lasting and brutally cold regional ground blizzard.* The virtually impossible and life-threatening conditions on nearly all exposed roads in between cities and towns severely impeded holiday travel across multiple northern and central state

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.