Mild week; light snow chances, mainly in the north
No big storms are on tap this week
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Areas of fog are likely to produce some icy spots Monday morning. Peaks of sun are possible.
Mild temperatures for the depth of winter are on tap through Friday. Most of the week will be overcast. Light snow and flurries are possible at times.
It will turn much colder next weekend.
Weak Alberta clippers but no big storms
Weak disturbances from the northwest will tap into our moisture and trigger chances of light snow just about every day through Friday. Northern Minnesota might pick up an inch or two of snow on some days while flurries will be more likely farther south. But no big storms are on tap.
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Monday will bring mild temperatures statewide. Highs should be in the upper 20s to low 30s with the Twin Cities reaching about 32. Light snow is possible in the north. Afternoon flurries might get as far south as the Twin Cities.
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will be cooler. Then we should moderate again on Friday with the Twin Cities maybe reaching the low 30s.
Next weekend, following week look cold
Much colder air will sweep in from Canada next weekend and well into next week. High temperatures will be in the single digits above and below zero. The Twin Cities might stay in the low teens for a high on Saturday before turning even colder on Sunday.
Looking further ahead, the six to 10-day temperature outlook for Jan. 28 through Feb. 1 calls for the likelihood of colder-than-normal temperatures for our part of the country.
Our normals have changed
Yes, our normals have changed, especially for nighttime temperatures in winter.
The coldest part of Minnesota winters occurs, on average, during the latter half of January. But in recent decades our midwinter nights have not been as cold as they were not long ago.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration computes daily average low and high temperatures for every date of the year for various locations. They use the previous three decades of data for the computations and revise the numbers every ten years.
For example, the average temperatures we are using now in 2023 are computed from the measurements taken from 1991-2020. The next re-compute will be after the 2030 data are complete.
In our current database of average temperatures for the Twin Cities, the coldest daily average low temperature is 8 degrees from Jan. 15-29. Forty years ago, in the 1980s, the average daily low temperature for this same part of the month (based on data for the period 1951-1980) was zero degrees.
That’s an amazing eight-degree overnight warming of the depth of winter in just a few decades. Other weather stations in Minnesota and surrounding states show a similar trend.
