Winter cold peaks; weekend temps set to swing 40-50 degrees

Parts of southern Minnesota will be above freezing this weekend

24 hour T change
24-hour change in temperature: much colder early Friday from early Thursday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Pivotal Weather

Much of Minnesota saw the coldest readings of this winter early Friday. We now quickly turn toward a big warmup this weekend with highs in the 20s and 30s that will persist into next week.

Lowest temps across Minnesota early Friday

Congratulations, you made it through the coldest night of this winter! There were many 20s and 30s below zero in northern Minnesota with lows primarily in the teens to near 20 below zero in southern Minnesota.

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Observed low temperatures early Friday, the coldest of the winter for many
National Weather Service

A reminder however, in the Twin Cities, that low of 13 below zero is still 1 or 2 degrees warmer than the modern average of about 14 or 15 below zero (2010-2022). The 30-year average — what climate meteorology defines as normal — is 17 below zero. Historically, the region could count on temps of 25 below zero or colder.

less extreme cold
Rapidly warming extreme winter temperatures
Climate Central

That modern average coldest minimum winter temperature is 24 below zero in Duluth, 38 below for International Falls on the Canadian border and 30 below for Brainerd in central Minnesota. None of these stations reached those modern averages.

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For all stations, those modern averages are about 6 degrees warmer than they were historically.

Mild weekend develops quickly

It will still be chilly all day Friday with single digit highs above zero by late in the day, maybe not until evening. Portions of northeastern Minnesota will remain below zero.

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Forecast high temperatures Friday
NOAA, via Pivotal weather

Those frigid highs Friday are about 15 to 25 degrees below normal for the date.

sat T anom
Forecast temperature anomalies (difference from normal) Friday afternoon
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

Temperatures will mostly continue to warm through the night Friday night as the frigid air retreats. High temperatures by Saturday afternoon will be in the 30s for portions of southern Minnesota with highs near 20 degrees in far northern Minnesota.

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Forecast high temperatures Saturday
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

Saturday high temperatures will be nearly 10 to 20 degrees above normal.

Sat PM T anom
Forecast temperature anomalies (difference from normal) Saturday afternoon
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

Sunday too, will be above normal with highs ranging from 20 north to freezing in the south. We could have a few flurries, especially across central and northern Minnesota Sunday morning.

Rain and snow Monday?

The mild air remains through next week, meaning highs will be in the 30s for southern Minnesota and 20s in the north. That means the next system on Monday may bring snow and rain showers late in the day across southern Minnesota.

Mon precip
Forecast precipitation 6 p.m. Sunday through 12 a.m. Tuesday
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

The precipitation doesn’t look significant but there could be some snowfall in northern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. There’s no real cold air in sight after Friday, which brings us through the middle of this month in medium-range forecasting.