Periods of rain, ice, snow Monday for Minnesota and western Wisconsin

It was a gorgeous Sunday, with plenty of sunshine. We had pleasant winter temperatures across most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

The Sunday high temp at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 33 degrees, which exactly matches the average Twin Cities high temperature for Feb. 26.

Our weather pattern becomes more active overnight Sunday night into Monday.

Potential for rain, ice and snow

A low pressure system will spread precipitation into southern, central and eastern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin overnight Sunday night, with precipitation continuing on Monday.

The precipitation will begin as rain in many areas, with freezing rain at locations that have cold enough surface temperatures. Some locations will see a mix of rain, freezing rain and snow overnight.

Periods of rain, freezing rain and snow are expected in Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Monday. A wintry mix could transition to mainly snow in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin as we go through Monday afternoon.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 9 p.m. Sunday to 9 p.m. Monday:

The actual precipitation may be a bit more extensive than what is shown in the NAM model loop, but the loop does illustrate the general pattern that’s expected.

Where freezing rain is most likely

Here’s the probability for periods of freezing rain overnight Sunday night and into Monday:

Here’s the ice (freezing rain) potential in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin:

How much snow?

Parts of northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin are likely to see several inches of snow Monday into Monday evening:

Only minor snow accumulations are expected in most of central Minnesota. The Twin Cities metro area could see a rain/snow mix for awhile, with little or no snow accumulation expected.

Warnings and advisories

Winter storm warnings for ice (freezing rain) begin at 3 a.m. Monday and continue until 6 p.m. Monday in several western Wisconsin counties. A winter storm warning for freezing rain plus accumulating snow runs from 2 a.m. Monday to 9 p.m. Monday from Pine County into northwestern Wisconsin:

Winter weather advisories are posted for portions of central Minnesota from 3 a.m. to 3 p.m. and for parts of the north and east metro from 3 a.m. to 10 a.m. Monday.

Here are details of the winter storm warning that includes west-central Wisconsin:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 243 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 ...FREEZING RAIN AND ACCUMULATING ICE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... .A strong storm system will bring widespread precipitation to central and southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin late tonight through most of Monday. The precipitation will start out as freezing rain, then will gradually mix with rain and snow late Monday morning. The highest ice amounts are expected in western Wisconsin, where around one quarter inch of ice is likely. Going westward across central Minnesota, ice accumulations of around a tenth of an inch are expected. A Winter Storm Warning is in place for much of western Wisconsin. A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for central Minnesota north of a line from Glenwood, to Litchfield, to Anoka, to Stillwater, continuing through Pierce and Pepin counties in western Wisconsin. WIZ014>016-027-270900- /O.EXT.KMPX.WS.W.0005.230227T0900Z-230228T0000Z/ Polk-Barron-Rusk-Chippewa- Including the cities of Osceola, Rice Lake, Ladysmith, and Chippewa Falls 243 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of around one quarter of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Polk, Barron, Rusk and Chippewa Counties. * WHEN...From 3 AM to 6 PM CST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

Here are details of the winter weather advisory that includes Anoka County and Washington County of the Twin Cities metro area:

MNZ051-057>059-061-063-WIZ024-026-270900- /O.EXT.KMPX.WW.Y.0010.230227T0900Z-230227T1600Z/ Sherburne-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Anoka-Washington-Pierce-Pepin- Including the cities of Elk River, Willmar, Litchfield, Monticello, Blaine, Stillwater, River Falls, and Durand 243 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Portions of central and east central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. * WHEN...From 3 AM to 10 AM CST Monday. * IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible power outages.

There appears to be a lower chance of freezing rain in the central and southern parts of the Twin Cities metro area. Check forecast updates overnight and Monday morning.

A winter storm warning for snow, sleet and freezing rain runs from 4 a.m. to 10 p.m. Monday in the Duluth area. There’s a winter storm warning for heavy snow Monday along the North Shore:

Here are details of that winter storm warning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 246 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 MNZ020-021-271200- /O.UPG.KDLH.WS.A.0002.230227T1200Z-230228T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KDLH.WS.W.0005.230227T1200Z-230228T0600Z/ Southern Lake-Southern Cook- Including the cities of Two Harbors, Silver Bay, and Grand Marais 246 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches. * WHERE...Southern Lake and Southern Cook Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Grand Portage Reservation. * WHEN...From 6 AM Monday to midnight CST Monday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

You can find updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and on the MPR News live weather blog.

Temperature trends

Monday highs will be mainly in the 30s:

There will be some 20s in northeastern Minnesota.

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the mid 30s on Tuesday, then around 30 degrees on Wednesday, followed by highs in the upper 20s Thursday and lower 30s on Friday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.