Mild Easter temps, some 70s this week; Update on river levels

It’s a mild Easter Sunday in many areas.

Our average Twin Cities high temperature is 54 degrees on April 9. The metro area, south-central and southeastern Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin will see Sunday highs in the 60s.

Highs will be mainly in the 50s elsewhere in Minnesota Sunday afternoon, with some 40s in northwestern and west-central Minnesota.

Temperature trends

Monday highs will reach the 60s in roughly the southern half of Minnesota and across much of western Wisconsin:

Tuesday highs will be in the 70s across much of central and southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

Unusually warm weather will continue beyond Tuesday. Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the upper 70s to around 80 on Wednesday and Thursday, followed by mid 70s Friday.

Sunday shower chances

Most of northwestern Minnesota and far southeastern Minnesota will have a dry Easter Sunday afternoon. Scattered showers are possible elsewhere in Minnesota and into west-central and northwestern Wisconsin.

Shower activity is expected to be light in most of the areas that do see a bit of rain.

You can find updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network.

Rapid snowmelt will cause flooding in some areas

There’s deep snowpack in much of northern Minnesota and in portions of northwestern Wisconsin. Very warm temperatures in the coming days will cause snowmelt to intensify.

The Duluth NWS office posted a spring flood outlook here.

The NWS also posted a hydrologic outlook for the green-shaded area on this map:

Here are details of the outlook:

Hydrologic Outlook MNC001-017-021-031-035-061-071-075-115-137-WIC003-007-013-031-051- 099-113-129-101930- Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Duluth MN 221 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2023 ...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A MELTING SNOWPACK AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK... Seasonably very warm temperatures spread from south to north Sunday through Wednesday and will lead to melting of the deep and primed snowpack in the Northland. Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the week and into next weekend sustaining a faster snow melt. Enhanced runoff from the melting snowpack is expected to start first in central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin early next week and spread northward to the rest of northeast Minnesota by the middle of next week. Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams and in low-lying and flood prone locations is possible next week across the Northland. If you live in an area that has previously experienced spring flooding impacts, expect to experience those problems again this year. The next update to this outlook is expected by 2:00 PM Monday, April 10, 2023.

Gauges track rising rivers

You can find info on river levels at various locations here.

This is how the linked map looked Sunday morning:

You can zoom in on the linked map page and get detailed info on river levels at a specific location. Here’s the hydrograph of recent, current and forecast levels for the Mississippi River at St. Paul:

A rise of about 7 feet is expected at that location in the next 7 days, with additional rises likely beyond next weekend.

Here are the results of various river levels at the St. Paul gauge:

Here’s the hydrograph of recent, current and forecast levels for the St. Croix River at Stillwater, Minnesota:

A rise of about 9 feet is expected in the next week, with an additional rise expected in the following week.

Here are the results of various river levels at the Stillwater gauge:

I should mention that river levels are measured in relation to the height above a local benchmark. In some locations river levels are listed in feet above sea level.

The March 20 flood outlook from the NWS showed the odds of the St . Croix River reaching major flood stage (89 feet) at Stillwater this spring:

Let’s hope we don’t get significant rainfall anytime soon.

Here are the historic St. Croix River crests at the Stillwater gauge:

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.