Chilly weekend; Saturday rain, then rain/snow mix overnight to snow on Sunday

After several days of summery temps this past week, it seems strange to be talking about snow for Sunday. Some locations to the west will see the snow begin Saturday night.

Here’s the NWS estimate of the chance for 4 or more inches of snow from Saturday night through Sunday and into Monday:

Seeing any snow is annoying in mid-April, but snow melts fairly quickly this time of year!

Rain to snow

Periods of rain will continue Saturday afternoon in roughly the eastern two-thirds of Minnesota plus western Wisconsin. A few embedded thunderstorms are also possible. Far western Minnesota could see scattered rain showers mixed with a few flakes.

Colder air spreads eastward Saturday evening and overnight, so eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin will see the rain transition to a rain/snow mix at some point.

Much of eastern Minnesota plus a good portion of Wisconsin will see mainly snow on Sunday, possibly mixed with a bit of rain at times.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 6 p.m. Saturday to 10 p.m. Sunday:

How much snow?

The snow will melt on some surfaces initially, and winds will be strong on Sunday. The heaviest snow totals are expected in Wisconsin:

It currently looks like Twin Cities metro area totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible Sunday through Sunday evening, but some forecast models show a bit more than that. Parts of southeastern Minnesota could see 6 inches of snow from Sunday into Monday morning.

A winter storm watch starts at 7 p.m. Sunday and continues to 10 a.m. Monday from Barron County, Wisconsin south to Winona County and Houston County of Minnesota and then eastward:

Here are winter storm watch details for portions of western Wisconsin:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 251 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 WIZ015-016-025>028-151600- /O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0011.230417T0000Z-230417T1500Z/ Barron-Rusk-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire- Including the cities of Rice Lake, Ladysmith, Menomonie, Durand, Chippewa Falls, and Eau Claire 251 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Wisconsin. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

A winter storm watch starts at 1 a.m. Sunday and runs to 7 p.m. Monday in Lake County and Cook County of northeastern Minnesota:

Here are details of the winter storm watch in Lake County and Cook County Sunday and Monday:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 248 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 MNZ012-020-021-152000- /O.NEW.KDLH.WS.A.0009.230416T0600Z-230418T0000Z/ Northern Cook and Lake-Southern Lake-Southern Cook- Including the cities of Isabella, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, and Grand Marais 248 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of up to one quarter of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. * WHERE...Northern Cook and Lake, Southern Lake and Southern Cook Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Grand Portage Reservation. * WHEN...From late tonight through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

A winter storm watch begins at 4 p.m. Sunday and runs to 7 p.m. Monday in Douglas County and Washburn County of northwestern Wisconsin and extends eastward from there.

Here are potential snow amounts:

You can find updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network.

You can check the National Weather Service offices in the Twin Cities, Duluth and La Crosse for updated forecasts and any watches, warnings and advisories this weekend.

Temperature trends

The average Twin Cities high temperature is 56 degrees this time of year. That’s about where we were at 1 a.m. Saturday, but afternoon temps will be mainly in the 40s in the metro area.

There will be a lot of 30s in northern and far western Minnesota and some 50s and low 60s in the far southeast.

Sunday highs will be mainly in the 30s to lower 40s.

Looking into the coming week, Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the upper 40s on Monday followed by lower 50s Tuesday, then mid 50s Wednesday and Thursday and lower 50s on Friday.

River levels

Rivers have already reached flood stage in parts of Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. You can see the river levels at various locations in northern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin here.

This is how the linked map looked Saturday morning:

You can find info on river levels elsewhere in Minnesota and western Wisconsin here.
Here’s how the linked map looked Saturday morning:

You can zoom in on the linked map page and get detailed info on river levels at a specific location.

I should mention that river levels are measured in relation to the height above a local benchmark. In some locations, river levels are listed in feet above sea level.

You can find info on river levels in eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota here. Here’s how the linked map looked Saturday morning:

Here’s the hydrograph of recent, current and forecast levels for the Mississippi River at St. Paul:

A rise of 6.7 feet is expected at that location in the next seven days, with additional rises possible beyond that point. The forecast level is 18.3 feet on Friday, which is at major flood stage.

Here are the results when various river levels occur at the St. Paul gauge:

Here’s the hydrograph of recent, current and forecast levels for the St. Croix River at Stillwater, Minnesota:

A rise of about 3.7 feet is expected in the next three to four days, with the river reaching major flood stage of 89.9 feet.

Here are the results of various river levels at the Stillwater gauge:

Rainfall and snowfall amounts will affect river levels.

Here are the historic St. Croix River crests at the Stillwater gauge:

Here’s the hydrograph of recent, current and forecast levels for the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota:

A rise of more than 16 feet is expected over the next 7 days, with the river reaching major flood stage.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.