Rain at times Saturday and Saturday night, some t-storms too; Mainly dry on Sunday

Our 2023 Minnesota Fishing Opener is featuring periods of rain in many locations and some spotty thunderstorms. Far northern Minnesota is the driest portion of the state today.

Roughly the southern two-thirds of Minnesota, plus much of western Wisconsin, will see periods of rain Saturday and Saturday night. There will be some embedded thunderstorms too.

Far southern Minnesota may see some lingering rain showers Sunday morning.

Forecast models

Let’s look at details of the additional rain potential Saturday evening into Sunday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh model shows the potential rain pattern from 6 p.m. Saturday to 6 p.m. Sunday:

NOAA’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model show the following rain pattern for that same time period:

Flood watch

A flood watch has been posted for several southern Minnesota counties Saturday through Saturday night, ending at 7 a.m. on Sunday:

Here are flood watch details for Renville, Sibley and Nicollet counties:

Flood Watch National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 930 AM CDT Sat May 13 2023 .Rainfall this morning has led to swelling small streams, with reports of ponding over roadways in a few spots. Further rainfall today will continue to increase the spread and severity of localized flooding, especially in low water crossings and areas already swollen by rainfalls this week. MNZ065-067-075-141200- /O.EXA.KMPX.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-230514T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Renville-Sibley-Nicollet- Including the cities of St Peter, Olivia, and Gaylord 930 AM CDT Sat May 13 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of central Minnesota and south central Minnesota, including the following counties, in central Minnesota, Renville and Sibley. In south central Minnesota, Nicollet. * WHEN...Through Sunday morning. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Rounds of heavy rainfall could produce totals of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals up to 5 inches, leading to the possibility of flash flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Here are flood watch details for southwestern and south-central Minnesota:

Flood Watch National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 930 AM CDT Sat May 13 2023 .Rainfall this morning has led to swelling small streams, with reports of ponding over roadways in a few spots. Further rainfall today will continue to increase the spread and severity of localized flooding, especially in low water crossings and areas already swollen by rainfalls this week. MNZ064-073-074-082-091-141200- /O.CON.KMPX.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-230514T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Yellow Medicine-Redwood-Brown-Watonwan-Martin- Including the cities of Redwood Falls, Granite Falls, New Ulm, Fairmont, and St James 930 AM CDT Sat May 13 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...Portions of south central Minnesota, southwest Minnesota and west central Minnesota, including the following counties, in south central Minnesota, Brown, Martin and Watonwan. In southwest Minnesota, Redwood. In west central Minnesota, Yellow Medicine. * WHEN...Through Sunday morning. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Rounds of heavy rainfall could produce totals of 2 to 3 inches, with isolated totals up to 5 inches, leading to the possibility of flash flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

You can find updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network. You can also check the following National Weather Service sites for updated weather info: Twin Cities, Duluth, La Crosse, Wis., Sioux Falls, S.D., Grand Forks, N.D.

Severe weather outlook

The Storm Prediction Center of the NWS shows a marginal risk of severe weather (darker green) in portions of southern Minnesota Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening/night:

Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible:

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in the yellow-shaded area on the outlook map, which includes Jackson County, Martin County and eastern Nobles County of far southern Minnesota.

Updated severe weather outlooks will be issued by the Storm Prediction Center this afternoon and evening.

Temperature trends

The average Twin Cities high temperature is 68 degrees on May 13. Parts of the Twin Cities metro area will see Saturday highs in the lower 70s.

There will also be some lower 70s in southeastern Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin and northern Minnesota. Cooler 60s are expected in northeastern Minnesota and in the portions of central and southern Minnesota that see the steadiest rains Saturday afternoon.

Sunday highs will be mainly in the 70s, with 60s in far southern Minnesota and near Lake Superior:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the mid 70s on Monday, followed by upper 70s Tuesday, mid-70s Wednesday then lower 70s Thursday and upper 60s on Friday.

Minnesota Fishing Opener weather

The Minnesota State Climatology Office has a post about Minnesota Fishing Opener weather through the years. Here’s an excerpt:

Opening day temperatures have started as low as 24 degrees at International Falls (1996,2004), and sub-freezing conditions have even affected Minneapolis (31 degrees in 1979). On the warm side, St. Cloud saw 92 degrees in 1987, Minneapolis reported 91 in 1987, and International Falls reached 88 in 1977.

Precipitation is not uncommon, but certainly is not the rule either. Three-quarters of past opening days have been free of measurable precipitation, and two-thirds of the fishing openers have been free of any precipitation, measurable or not. On those days with measurable rain, the amounts averaged close to a half-inch in the south and a quarter inch in the north. Rainfall has exceeded one inch once in St. Cloud, and twice in the Twin Cities, with a maximum of 1.64" in 1965. Snow, usually just a trace, was officially recorded in 1963, 1993, 2000, 2009 and 2013 at International Falls, and in 1968 at St. Cloud.

Weather nugget

The Twin Cities record high temp for this date (May 13) is 92 degrees, set in 2007. The Twin Cities reached 91 degrees the following day.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.