Strong/severe storms likely by late Wednesday afternoon; heatwave next week

Morning rains have been welcome for lawns and gardens but will do little to quench our drought. My rain gauge in Minneapolis measured just a tenth of an inch of rain. Flying Cloud Airport in Eden Prairie did better with more than a third of an inch (.37).

Numerous showers and some thunderstorms continue in northeastern and east central Minnesota, well north of the Twin Cities area.

A cold front crossing Minnesota will be the focus for thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon. Warm, moist air feeding into the state ahead of the front will prime the atmosphere for action. Daytime heating that should push our Twin Cities temperatures into the upper 80s and will be the last ingredient needed.

The atmosphere will be sufficiently unstable that some of these storms are likely to become severe by late afternoon and into Wednesday evening. The latest convective update from the Storm Prediction Center includes nearly all of Minnesota except a small part of the west central for potential severe weather. Also, the slight risk (level 2 of 5) area has been expanded.

Very large hail possible

The primary severe weather risk will be for damaging hail. The Storm Prediction Center has also increased the size of the area for possible very large hail of two inches diameter or larger (hatched area below). That area does include the Twin Cities and much of eastern and southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Tornadoes are possible as well

This weather system might be able to spawn one or more tornadoes, with the greatest chance in the Duluth area, northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin.

Cooler Thursday

Thursday looks like a pleasant day with a return of low dew points. The Twin Cities should have a high in the low 80s.

Then heating up

Temperatures will climb into the weekend.

Heat wave likely next week

A heat wave is looking more likely for next week and beyond. The heat dome that has built over western states is forecast to push slowly eastward across the northern Plains. Highs in the 90s will arrive in Minnesota by Monday. By midweek, Minnesota will warm farther into the 90s while South Dakota begins experiencing some century readings.

The continued slow eastward shift of the hot air could easily bring high temperatures of 100 degrees or higher to Minnesota, especially southern parts of the state, by late next week.

And the 8-14 day temperature outlook for Wednesday, July 26 through Tuesday, Aug. 1 calls for hotter than normal conditions to continue well into a second week.